Owen Polley: ​The Protocol is the biggest of many problems for unionists in 2024

That became the overwhelming focus of many commentators and, in particular, the broadcast media, despite the devolved institutions’ historical record of failure and lack of delivery.

In service to the assumption that Stormont must return, it became received wisdom that the government had made ‘progress’ over the past year in solving problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol. This was a misconception that offered some encouragement, but it was also, I’m afraid to say, mostly nonsense.

In February, the UK and the EU signed the Windsor Framework and the prime minister claimed that it removed ‘any sense’ of a border in the Irish Sea. In fact, while the deal included some improvements on the protocol as it was originally drafted, it was considerably worse than the arrangements that had been implemented up to that point.

It had quickly become apparent, back in 2021, that Boris Johnson’s protocol deal would be unworkable if it was properly enacted. For that reason, various ‘temporary’ grace periods and easements became established facts of life. They were going nowhere, until Rishi Sunak intervened and removed them through the framework.

The government’s claims about that deal’s achievements disintegrated almost immediately. But ministers, pro-EU lobbyists and much of the media continued to repeat them regardless.

In July, the House of Lords’ Northern Ireland Protocol sub-committee published a report that examined in detail the ways in which the framework’s merits had been exaggerated or just plain invented.

It also repeated some of the arguments that ‘progress’ had been made. These claims, though, rested on vague ideas about Northern Ireland’s ‘unique position’ and the benefits of an improved relationship between the UK and the EU. In contrast, the problems outlined in the report were based on real and immediate worries faced by businesses.

Are things likely to get better in 2024? I’m sorry to be so gloomy, but I think it is unlikely. Everywhere you look, there’s dishonesty about the issues that Northern Ireland faces, the causes of its malaise and the constitutional implications.

The government, while it reportedly offered the DUP a deal before Christmas, continued to claim the framework as some kind of success. The focus, at the end of the year, was on funding for the executive. But we still have little information about how it proposed to protect our place in the UK internal market.

We do know, though, that Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are probably on their way out of power. There is likely to be a general election this year and Labour is a strong favourite to win.

The prime minister could even potentially be out of a job later this month. Mr Sunak’s Rwanda bill passed its second reading in the House of Commons in December, but the right of the Conservative party looks poised to vote against it next time and possibly trigger a challenge to his leadership.

Even if the government does deliver legislation on the protocol, it’s debatable whether it will be worth anything. Ahead of other major developments on the sea border, politicians have briefed journalists about what to expect, often with exaggerated claims.

This time, though, the briefings have been scant and any rumours that have emerged have lacked substance. There may eventually be some reassuring words in legislation about our place in the UK market or a bit of administrative tinkering with the green and red lanes. Almost nobody is predicting that significant parts of the protocol or the framework will be replaced, much less that issues around law and sovereignty will be addressed.

It looks like unionism will have to continue to grapple with Northern Ireland’s new hybrid constitutional status, halfway between the UK and the EU. Our society is already changing in response to this arrangement, as trade diverts from GB and our economy realigns with the Republic.

In addition, a whole myriad of further problems will complicate unionists’ task.

In Northern Ireland, even in unionism, a sense of entitlement and exceptionalism continues to undermine our place in the UK. Meanwhile, this tendency, combined with our historic failure to build support at Westminster and beyond, encourages indifference on the mainland to the health of the Union.

In Ulster, particularly in the aftermath of Brexit, political parties have prospered that are complacent about the benefits of being part of the UK and nonchalant about the risks of experimenting with the constitution. A new, younger generation is ignorant about what happened in the Troubles, or simply doesn’t care, with the result that highly motivated republican activists can distort our recent history with relative success.

In addition, we’re rapidly importing some of the worst, stupidest and most divisive trends from elsewhere into our already deeply flawed political life. Our legal system is changing, for example, to restrict freedom of speech under the guise of hate speech law, while institutions adopt destructive new gender ideologies and dangerous theories on race and colonialism

These problems exist elsewhere, but we are particularly poorly equipped to deal with them and they confuse and complicate the central task of defending and strengthening the Union.

I’m sorry to say that, for Northern Ireland, 2024 threatens to be every bit as difficult as 2023. While unionism faces many issues, the protocol remains the most pressing and immediate problem.