Owen Polley: Tory hopefuls should be ready to explain their stance on the Union to Northern Ireland hustings

The final two contenders, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, have been taking part in a nationwide series of hustings and they are roughly half-way through their busy schedule.

These debates give Tory activists across the country an opportunity to hear the candidates address issues that are relevant to their region.

In this internal party election, only Conservative members are entitled to vote; so they are the electorate that will effectively decide who becomes our next prime minister.

While they’re intended to allow the candidates to court the support of fellow Tories, many of the hustings have been open, competitive affairs, covered extensively by television and newspapers.

It’s understandable, given our comparative size, that while Northern Ireland has featured in these debates, it’s not been the central issue.

You would presume that that will change in Belfast and hopefully the party will ensure that the discussion is conducted openly and reported widely.

There is a small, dedicated group of Conservatives here, but questions about the Northern Ireland Protocol, the future of the Union and the government’s plans on legacy are relevant to everyone in the province, as well as many potential Tory voters on the mainland.

At the end of last week, the underdog in this contest, Rishi Sunak, made an attempt to explain how he would treat Northern Ireland, if he were prime minister.

He pledged that this part of the UK would be ‘central’ to his plan to “restore trust, rebuild our economy and unite our great nation”.

And he promised that he would “fix the Northern Ireland Protocol”.

That is exactly the kind of rhetoric that we would expect from any prospective Tory leader, but what does it really mean and can we rely upon it?

The former chancellor went on to explain that he would “push for the EU to come to the table once more”, citing his record as “an experienced international negotiator”.

His faith in talks is not particularly reassuring, when you consider Brussels’ obstructive attitude over the past six years, but Truss also expressed a preference for negotiating a settlement with the EU.

Sunak offers reassurance that “the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill will continue to make its way through parliament and, if negotiation doesn’t deliver what we need it to, it will become law”.

Again, on the surface, this position does not differ substantially from what Liz Truss said when she introduced the legislation.

The News Letter, though, has reported that ‘key Tory figures’ felt Mr Sunak was ‘backwards-leaning’ when it came to tackling the Protocol through parliament.

The ministers concerned, Simon Clarke and Kwasi Kwarteng, both support Ms Truss, so it is not a shock that they are critical of the former chancellor.

However, Sunak was also reputedly an opponent of triggering ‘Article 16’, when Boris Johnson and Lord Frost threatened to use that clause to set aside elements of the sea border.

In mitigation, the former chancellor was in charge of the country’s economy at the time and the EU encouraged the idea that it could launch a ‘trade war’ if the UK acted unilaterally on the protocol.

His nervousness was understandable, but it raises the question of whether a new negotiation would be likely to achieve an acceptable or fair outcome.

Liz Truss says, “I think that we’ve learned from history that there is one thing the EU understands and that is strength.”

In contrast, Brussels would enter talks with Sunak knowing he was previously reluctant to provoke confrontation, even in the face of extreme intransigence.

These are issues that we must hope are explored in detail during the contenders’ Northern Ireland debate.

Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are at least aware that the protocol is not workable in its current form.

Even the EU’s most slavish supporters would admit that, if they were being honest.

The Irish Sea border was negotiated by Brussels with the specific aim of imposing an unworkable arrangement, so that it could continuously pressurise the rest of the UK into realigning with aspects of its single market.

The Conservative government allowed that to happen, because, otherwise, it might not have delivered any form of Brexit at all for voters in Great Britain.

It thought it could solve glaringly obvious problems with the protocol later, but that supposition was a thoroughly irresponsible way to treat a Union that it was supposed to cherish.

That’s why extricating itself from this mess is still such an important theme of the Tory party’s leadership contest.

And, at the hustings in Belfast, the contenders will face Conservatives and Unionists who have been let down by the government and isolated from the rest of the UK.

They’d better have convincing answers at the ready.