Editorial: Gas price falls give glimmers of economic hope in Northern Ireland

​The tariff reduction will not kick in until next month, by which time winter will be almost over. Even so, it is another move in the right direction for gas costs, after a reduction earlier this year.

This has been nowhere near as grim a cold season in the province as it might have been. While we are currently in a freezing snap, it has been an unusually mild winter, with grass growing in November and last month.

Overall energy prices have been much lower than was feared. Oil is 30% down on its recent pre Christmas peak, when 900 litres of home oil cost more than £900 (now it is around £650). Petrol and diesel are also well below peak. But these prices are all relative – gas, oil and transport fuel are still well above norm.

What the reductions show, however, is that those experts who insisted that inflation was temporary are being vindicated. This justifies caution on pay increases. While everyone is entitled to see their income rise in line with increases in living costs, there is a risk that a wave of pay deals commensurate with a temporary spike in inflation would just make price rises even higher. An upward spiral would inflict serious harm on the economy and punish savers.

With hindsight critics who said the £600 energy payments might have been a shade excessive had a point, but that can’t be changed now so let’s hope it boosted the economy as well as helping the poorest households.

There are hopeful indicators in the UK economy. Treasury receipts in January were higher than expected. There has been a long period of financial difficulty stretching back to the 2007 crash, then compounded by Brexit uncertainty, Covid lockdowns, then war in Ukraine. But with luck the sharp coming downturn that was predicted for Britain might only be a mild one.