It is time for an indicative vote on a united Ireland

Discussion about the future of Northern Ireland has increased since the Brexit vote in 2016.

Only the secretary of state for NI can call a referendum on this issue (Schedule 1, Belfast / Good Friday Agreement).

To make that decision, the secretary of state needs to know if it is likely that a majority would vote in favour of a united Ireland.

Despite surveys of attitude about the topic and various polls of likely voting intention, there is an absence of definitive data. However, there is a straightforward way to gather the accurate information required to guide the secretary of state.

That is to hold an ‘indicative’ (non-binding) vote on the subject.

The vote could be undertaken as part of one of our regular elections (assembly; local government; or Westminster general election).

A small change to current voting legislation might be required to facilitate the vote.

Voters would be presented with a separate voting paper containing the two options — remain in the UK, or join a united Ireland.

Some people believe that we should not discuss this matter because it is a ‘divisive’ issue. Unfortunately, almost every political issue in Northern Ireland is divisive, so this should not be a block on seeking conclusive information.

The indicative vote is likely to have the side effect of increasing turnout in the election with which it is held. Higher turnouts are usually considered a good thing in a healthy democracy.

It is possible that the higher turnout might disproportionately favour unionist parties in terms of seats won. It is also worth noting that British MPs at Westminster used a system of indicative votes in March 2019 when debating the divisive issue of Brexit.

If the indicative vote in favour of a united Ireland was 46 per cent or lower, then the issue could be put to bed for seven years.

If the vote for a united Ireland was 47 per cent or higher, then the secretary of state might wish to prepare the ground (with a public information campaign on the two options; detailed discussions with the Irish government and the EU; etc.) for a full, binding referendum within two years.

There would be a marginal additional cost in printing the indicative voting papers and counting the votes cast, but at least everyone would know precisely where we stood.

Martin Melaugh, Coleraine

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