Election 2023 - Antrim and Newtownabbey: Will local issues or the bigger picture dominate in minds of unionist voters?

But back in 2014 (the first election to the newly-rejigged councils), it was 63%.

While unionism’s share dropped, the Alliance Party’s grew from 13% to 19%, and the SDLP/SF’s remained static at 21%.

The result is that this is how the council looked after the last election in 2019 (any losses or gains compared with 2014 are in brackets):

DUP: 14 (-1), UUP: 9 (-3), Alliance: 7 (+3), SF: 5 (+2), SDLP: 4 (+/-0), TUV: 0 (-2), Ind: 1

Could Alliance gains be even more pronounced this time around?

After all, the party stood eight candidates in 2019, and all but one got elected. This time it is standing 10.

And what about intra-unionist politics?

UUP candidate Paul Michael said much of his recent canvassing has revolved around prosaic "local issues" like potholes, though the Protocol has sometimes come up on the doorsteps.

For him, much of the election will depend on the 48 hours before the vote, when he expects the DUP to pile pressure on unionists by indicating 'vote DUP or get Sinn Fein'.

"I wouldn't doubt for one minute that card would be played again," he said.

"Having said that, I don't think the electorate are that silly or stupid... I do believe they could see through that.

"Do I believe there's a big surge coming for the DUP in this election? Certainly not. I don't see it."

Amid concerns about voter apathy given the number of elections in recent times, the UUP man said if "what we have, we hold, at the minute it'd be a very good result".

The UUP fared relatively poorly the last go-round, dropping from 12 councillors to nine (though poor planning / bad luck may have had a hand, because the party's actual first preference vote only dropped from 22% to 20.3%)

TUV were squeezed too in 2019, losing both their councillors (and going from 5.7% of the share of the first-preference vote to 1.7%).

Not that any of this spelled smiles for the DUP as it lost one of its own seats and its first preference vote share dipped by 0.7%.

Alison Bennington, who was elected for the DUP in 2019, said: "My message to everyone is: this is a local government election. It's nothing to do with Stormont or Westminster."What I've been getting on the doors is very positive. That's it in the main.

"When they start getting into issues on going back to Stormont and things like that, I just remind them this is local government.

"I definitely see we'll hold seats, and hopefully we'll gain a few."

Asked if she got a sense on the campaign trail of a TUV resurgence, given how vocal Jim Allister has been over the Protocol / Windsor Framework, she said: "Not at all. Nobody has even mentioned the TUV in the process."

As for Alliance, she said "people aren't going to vote for Alliance; they maybe did before but they're not going to do it now".

Why?

"I think their views are Alliance are going down towards a united Ireland... that's their thoughts now, not mine."

Lastly, has her being gay brought problems with voters?

"None at all. I was at a door the other night, and the party was called 'homophobes' and 'bigots' and I thought: You're speaking to the wrong person."

Meanwhile TUV man Mel Lucas said: “The big issues on the doorstep are cost of living, impacting everyone, access to GPs, and the lack of trust with politicians generally.”

As for the outcome, he said: “TUV polled very well in this area last year, coming within a few hundred votes of winning an Assembly seat, and I’m confident that support is holding and we’ll see a number of TUV councillors returned”.

Antrim and Newtownabbey candidates 2023:

Airport

Thomas Burns (SDLP), Terri Johnston (Green), Anne Marie Logue (SF), Matt Magill (DUP), Andrew McAuley (Alliance), Paul Michael (UUP), Maighread Ni Chonghaile (SF)

Antrim

Eleanor Bailey (Green), Paul Dunlop (DUP), Neil Kelly (Alliance), Roisin Lynch (SDLP), Karl McMeekin (DUP), Tommy Monaghan (Alliance), Jim Montgomery (UUP), Lucille O'Hagan (Sinn Fein), Richard Shields (TUV), John Smyth (DUP), Leah Smyth (UUP)

Ballyclare

Jeannie Archibald (DUP), Lewis Boyle (Alliance), Mel Lucas (TUV), Gerard Magee (SF), Helen Magill (DUP), Vera McWilliam (UUP), Norrie Ramsey (UUP), Robert Robinson (Green), Michael Stewart (Ind.)

Dunsilly

Jay Burbank (Alliance), Jonathan Campbell (TUV), Linda Clarke (DUP), Tom Cunningham (DUP), Henry John Cushinan (SF), Siobhan McErlean (Aontu), Annie O'Lone (SF), Ryan Wilson (SDLP), Stewart Wilson (UUP)

Glengormley

Alison Bennington (DUP), Paula Jane Bradley (DUP), Mark Spencer Cosgrove (UUP), Michael Goodman (SF), Rosie Kinnear (SF), Michael Maguire (Ind.), Noreen McClelland (SDLP), Julian McGrath (Alliance), Eamonn McLaughlin (SF), Anita Piatek (Alliance), Jason Reid (Cons), Lesley Veronica (Green)

Macedon

Rosemary Bell-McCracken (PUP), Norman Jonathan Boyd (TUV), Matthew Brady (DUP), Ellie Byrne (Green), Robert Thomas Foster (UUP), Ben Mallon (DUP), Taylor McGrann (SF), Victor Robinson (DUP), Stafford Ward (Ind), Billy Webb (Alliance)

Three Mile Water

Tom Campbell (Alliance), Mark Cooper (DUP), Stephen Cosgrove (UUP), Sam Flanagan (DUP), Julie Gilmour (Alliance), Brian Kerr (UUP), Dylan Loughlin (Green), Trevor Mawhinney (TUV), Emmanuel Mullen (SF), Stephen Edward Ross (DUP)