Estimated impact on General Election results of planned boundary changes

The calculations of notional results from the snap general election in June by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher found Conservatives would have been down 20 seats under the provisional boundary proposals published a year ago as against down 10 seats under the revised proposals now.
By The Newsroom
Published 17th Oct 2017, 12:17 BST
Updated 12th Dec 2017, 04:24 BST
Ballot boxBallot box
Ballot box

Labour would have been down 18 as against 30 now; Lib Dems down four as against five now; SNP down four as against two now; Plaid Cymru down two - no change; and Green losing one as against holding one now.

The academics provided a regional breakdown of their notional results for the June poll under the revised proposals for a 600-seat Commons.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

These estimates show in England: Conservatives would have won 290 seats (down 7 on the actual result in June); Labour 205 (down 22); LD 5 (down 3); Green 1 (no change).

In Scotland: C 13 (no change); Lab 5 (down 2); LD 2 (down 2); SNP 33 (down 2).

In Wales: C 5 (down 3); Lab 22 (down 6); PC 2 (down 2).

In Northern Ireland: DUP 7 (down 3); SF 9 (up 2); Ind 1 (no change).

Within the English regions, the calculations show:

:: Eastern: C 48 (down 2); Lab 8 (up 1); LD 1 (no change)

:: East Midlands: C 32 (up 1); Lab 12 (down 3)

:: London: C 20 (down 1); Lab 46 (down 3); LD 2 (down 1)

:: North East: C 3 (no change); Lab 22 (down 4)

:: North West: C 20 (no change); Lab 48 (down 6); LD 0 (down 1)

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

:: South East: C 73 (no change); Lab 8 (no change); LD 1 (down 1); Green 1 (no change)

:: South West: C 45 (down 2); Lab 7 (no change); LD 1 (no change)

:: West Midlands: C 33 (down 2); Lab 20 (down 4)

:: Yorkshire and Humberside: C 16 (down 1); Lab 34 (down 3).

Related topics:LabourSNP