Ben Lowry: It is hard to see a good result for unionism from Tory turmoil

The humiliating exit of the prime minister has implications for many national and international policy matters.

This Downing Street turbulence raises for the first time in my living memory questions about the political stability of the UK state, a nation that has hitherto had a reputation for good governance.

It raises, also for the first time in my lifetime, doubts about whether the Tory party can hang together as a political entity (I still think its survival instincts are such that it will, but a right wing breakaway party is becoming increasingly likely, perhaps led by Nigel Farage).

And the events of recent weeks have profound implications for Northern Ireland and its place in the Union.

This is not to say that a border poll is imminent but to acknowledge that it might now be closer than it was - given that a Labour government is likely to take office within two years (and that party is more likely to grant a referendum than the Tories).

Even if such a plebiscite is not forthcoming, then another less obvious threat to unionism is set to accelerate: the gradual but relentless chipping away at UK sovereignty in NI.

This week the Alliance, Ulster Unionist and Sinn Fein leaders Naomi Long, Doug Beattie and Mary Lou McDonald all said that the collapse of Stormont could well lead to a greater say for the Irish government over how this province is run.

I fear that they are right.

Joint authority, in which Dublin has as much say over NI as London does, is unlikely because it would contradict the Belfast Agreement. But joint stewardship, in which notional sovereignty lies with the UK government but its Irish counterpart is given a greater say in the actual running of NI, is possible.

It will be unpardonable if a supposed Conservative and Unionist government goes down that route but there is so much chaos in Westminster that ministers could lurch into solutions that inflict irreparable constitutional harm.

In 2020 I noted the near silence of unionists when the Irish government, in the form of Simon Coveney, was given joint stewardship of the talks process, and the subsequent deal that delved deep into matters that should be kept within Strand One (ie which pertain to the internal affairs of NI).

Mr Coveney, a partisan voice in favour of nationalist demands such as the Sinn Fein-led push for an Irish language act, has become more conciliatory in his recent language. This might reflect the fact that a capitulation to Irish demands is getting closer - he is smart enough to know not to crow about victories over the UK at this sensitive time.

But even if London has no such concessions in mind now, the NI Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has again made clear that an election will be called if Stormont is not back by next Friday.

Mr Heaton-Harris is new to the job but he must know that his insistence on this point applies great pressure on the DUP and next to none on Sinn Fein.

There is little prospect of the DUP getting the reforms it needs to the Irish Sea border within the next week, given that Downing Street will be rudderless until the next prime minister has been in office long enough to get a proper grip on power.

That means that the DUP faces either an election or an embarrassing return to Stormont without having secured its terms for the restoration of devolution.

Sinn Fein can be confident of dividends whatever happens.

If an election is called, an even greater number of nationalists might rally behind the party than they did in May, believing that the DUP has stalled on power-sharing to thwart SF being top.

Or if this is not the result, and the DUP defies the odds to edge ahead of SF in a fresh contest, there will be nationalist fury that trickery has denied them a first minister.

On the other hand, if London has been bluffing and an election is not called, then SF (backed by the SDLP, Alliance and most of the Dail) will demand joint stewardship .

Incidentally, I marvel at how wrong-headed was the hysteria that the Northern Ireland Office (NIO) had been taken over by the European Research Group (ERG) of pro Brexit Tory MPs when Mr Heaton-Harris and his junior Steve Baker were made ministers.

I have been vindicated in my concern that it signalled opposite: a move in London towards compromise on the protocol.

I am not seeing any likely Tory leader who can even be depended upon to press ahead with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which aims to overhaul the trade barrier with Great Britain.

A Boris Johnson return, as well as being farcical in light of the revolt by his own Tory MPs against him just weeks ago, would represent the return of a man whose 'unionism' is utterly unreliable.

The two most likely alternatives, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt, have shown no interest in unionism, or indeed in Northern Ireland.

Whoever wins next week, their ability to stand strong in defence of NI's full place in the Union will be greatly diminished, even if they are inclined to be strong.

Only weeks ago the EU was on the back foot over the protocol. Perhaps something will happen that will again force it on to the defensive, but it is hard to see what that something might be.

• Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter editor

• Ben Lowry October 15: Ben Lowry: Up the Ra chant shows why unionists should steer clear of New Ireland

• Ben Lowry October 8: It does seem the UK is edging towards a deal with EU over NI, but not yet