Hilary Benn rules out new border poll criteria - saying it's a matter of political judgement for the UK government

A political judgement by the Secretary of State is the only means by which a border poll can be called – and using polling to judge public opinion would encourage attempts to sway the surveys, according to the man who could be running the NIO after the general election.
Shadow NI secretary Hilary Benn was in Northern Ireland this week, picture here with interim DUP leader Gavin Robinson.Shadow NI secretary Hilary Benn was in Northern Ireland this week, picture here with interim DUP leader Gavin Robinson.
Shadow NI secretary Hilary Benn was in Northern Ireland this week, picture here with interim DUP leader Gavin Robinson.

Hilary Benn also said that there is “no evidence at all” that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote to leave the United Kingdom.

Asked on BBC’s The View programme if he would clarify the criteria for calling a vote, the Labour Shadow Secretary of State said: “No. Because there is a criterion already. It is written in the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement… it says a border poll shall be called by the Secretary of State when he or she is of the view that in the event a poll took place a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote for a united Ireland”.

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Nationalists have argued for ‘clearer’ criteria for how a poll should be called.

Mr Benn said: "In the end it is a political judgement by the Secretary of State. Now the people who wrote the Belfast Good Friday Agreement debated long and hard. And every word, every sentence, every paragraph was carefully considered”.

He said negotiators in 1998 had come to the conclusion of the current system – and argued that “as Keir Starmer said it’s not even on the horizon at the moment because in so far as there are indications of what public opinion is in Northern Ireland there is no evidence at all that there would be a majority. So that is for the future. But it is a political judgement”.

The Labour MP said the alternative is for someone to say “it’s going to be based on five polls, over four months by three reputable companies showing a lead of x percent over what period. You cannot take a decision on that basis because – apart from anything else – people will then focus on ‘well how can we shape the polls that are going to be called upon’.

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“It is a political judgement. It is very clear there is one criterion and when the moment comes – if and when and as it comes – a Secretary of State whoever it is will know the responsibility that rests upon them”.

DUP Fermanagh MLA Deborah Erskine said: “It is welcome that Hilary Benn stands by the Starmer position on a divisive border poll and has dismissed those pressing for an immediate poll.

Sinn Fein was calling for a divisive border poll before all the votes were even counted at the last Assembly election. The combined Sinn Fein and SDLP vote in 2023 is not much different than it was in 1998 and the Sinn Fein approach hasn’t changed much either.

“In 2011, Gerry Adams told us Northern Ireland would have left the UK by 2016. In August 2021, Gerry had changed 2016 to 2024. In May 2022, Mary Lou McDonald called for a border poll by 2027. In July 2022, Mary Lou McDonald changed from 2027 to 2030.

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“And just this year, Michelle O’Neill had shifted the Sinn Fein goalposts again to call for a border poll by 2034.

“Northern Ireland needs many things but a Border Poll is not one of them.

“Our focus must be on making Northern Ireland work and ensuring it is a prosperous place to live, work and raise your family.”

Asked by Mark Carruthers if he considered himself a unionist, Mr Benn said: “Well I am not advocating for a united Ireland. The Labour Party is not advocating for a united Ireland”.

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