All eyes on DUP reaction EU/UK protocol deal but business leaders remain cautious

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Roger Pollen, head of the Federation of Small Businesses NI, said: "We have analysed our membership really closely and we have come up with a kind of map with five cohorts as to how the protocol affects people.

The first is for the ones for whom it is working really well, such as the diary sector and agri-foods and so on.

The second cohort is the ones that are largely unaffected, like services, and such as journalism, which is largely unaffected by the protocol.

The third cohort is the ones who are unaware - typically a small shops that gets all of its supplies from a Northern Ireland based wholesaler. All of the stuff coming in is being processed, and all of the paperwork is being done by somebody in Northern Ireland who is feeling the pain of sorting all of that out and charging accordingly, but the business they are supplying is unaware of the protocol's effect.

The fourth is the really tricky one that I think people have lost sight of, and that is the ones that are protected by the grace periods.

"There are around six grace periods, so things like VAT on second-hand cars, there is a grace period meaning that is not an issue at the moment.

"The two huge ones are that supermarkets are allowed to sign a declaration saying every they are bringing in meets EU standards, without having it checked to prove that it does.

"There is then the grace period for parcels that is allowing parcels to come in for people, so everybody is still getting their stuff without realising that the only reason they are getting it is because of grace periods.

"Then there are a few others, including animal medicines, human medicines and meat products. So those grace periods are disguising the problems, so a lot of people are unaware that it's not yet sorted.

"And then there's the fifth cohort, and that is the ones that are affected really badly.

"We have spent the last couple of years understanding all the implications and the pressures of that, and communicating that to everybody that will listen - the UK Government, the EU and member states and everybody else.

"So there is nothing new that they could be learning. The big question is, what are they going to come forward with, and how well will it address all of the problems that have been identified?

"There are two sides locked in a water-tight set of negotiations."

However, Mr Pollen said the process should have been one of "joint problem solving" rather than a "trade-off" of negotiated agreements."