Brexit to trigger '˜economic shock' in province - Osborne

George Osborne will point to a new analysis of Treasury figures and suggest unemployment would rise by 14,000 in Northern Ireland over two years if the UK left the European Union, with 2,000 added to the youth unemployment figure.

The impact of the shock from leaving the EU and the free trade single market could equate to a £1.3 billion reduction in the size of the Northern Ireland economy by 2018, with house prices falling by £18,000 over the same period, Mr Osborne will insist.

Mr Osborne will use the visit to warn of the impact on cross-border trade, warning that border and custom checks will have to be implemented in the event of Brexit.

He will also question whether the current free movement of people across Ireland under the Common Travel Area arrangement between the UK and Ireland could be maintained.

Mr Osborne will contend that Northern Ireland is “particularly vulnerable” to the economic shock he claims would follow an EU exit, noting the land border with the Irish Republic; the region’s reliance on agriculture; and the peace process funding it continues to receive from the EU.

He will claim the negative impact will also “spill over” and affect the Irish Republic’s economy.

By contrast, Mr Osborne will argue that the province has a bright future inside a reformed EU, with opportunities to build on the economic recovery and rising levels of employment.

“At the moment, Northern Ireland is among the best regions of the UK when it comes to creating jobs,” he will say.

“It’s a great success story that I am confident we can build on if the UK remains in a reformed EU.”