Can politics emerge from the quagmire with a great reset?

The political turbulence sparked by last week’s curtailing of the Executive effectively pulled the plug on the vital business of government at a time when the need for an economic recovery strategy could not be more urgent.

Having operated in extreme circumstances during the last couple of years, our members are once again facing a storm of deep uncertainty and instability. Big decisions around removing the remaining Covid restrictions and agreeing a three-year budget are now stalled.

Any hopes that this Thursday’s meeting of Stormont ministers would remove the requirement for businesses to ensure compliance with face covering regulations and other Covid restrictions, as well as the legal duty to check Covid-status certification, are now in jeopardy. A chance to eradicate an extra layer of stress for hospitality and retail is now in real danger, thus heaping further difficulty on an already strained sector.

A work-around is being considered by the Health Minister, but the very real prospect of an indefinite continuation of Covid restrictions is unfathomable. The way forward is mired in confusion. To that end, and not wishing to wave a ‘We told you so’ banner, FSB called last autumn for an expiration date for health regulations to be given precedence. A ‘sunset clause’ had the support of nearly 80% of our members when they were polled on the so-called Covid passports before Christmas. This would have avoided the very scenario we are now facing – to continue operating under zombie regulations that no one is empowered to repeal.

Also in jeopardy is the first three-year budget for several years, which should have given greater certainty and allowed for planning well into the future. And what about the many other significant policy issues facing our economy and the much-needed financial support for firms battling punishing energy costs, high inflation, staff shortages and the impending rise in National Insurance which will have a huge impact on small business finances? For those already resource-pressured firms, all of these factors simply mean less to spend on investment and staff.

On top of multiple struggles facing businesses even before Stormont’s collapse, will be how the EU responds to the Agriculture Minister’s decision to suspend checks on agri-food products arriving from Great Britain. Ahead of the expected continuation of intensive talks between the Foreign Secretary. Liz Truss, and the European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič at the end of this week, the need for urgent progress cannot be over-stated. A negotiated solution, which focuses on removing friction on the movement of goods, is where the two sides need to arrive. An agreement before the end of February is not an impossibility, but if ever there were a time to stay ‘laser-focused’ - as Liz Truss pledged following her recent telephone call with Mr Šefčovič - on overcoming the practical customs challenges, while safeguarding the integrity of the EU’s Single Market, it is now.

Just as fresh impetus can be brought to the EU/UK negotiating table, so too the political quagmire into which Stormont has slipped may just highlight the need to hit the reset button and inject stability via a fresh five year mandate. The current cohort of Assembly members only came back to their desks at Parliament Buildings in early 2020 after an Executive collapse of three years. Emerging from the pandemic, the policy priority in a new Programme for Government must be economic recovery. Undoubtedly, the long-term effects of Covid-19 on business will be felt for an unquantifiable period. Despite the many sacrifices that have had to be made during the past two years, our members are focusing on the road ahead and looking forward to a time when they can put Covid firmly in the rear-view.

There will be many lessons to learn from Stormont’s performance in the recent past, but providing a clear direction of travel for businesses and the self-employed should be paramount. For now, much uncertainty remains. Future variants of the virus could be more or less severe than Omicron; but we must focus on an end-point. It is time to see a permanent plan that puts long-term resilience front and centre. The only way to protect small businesses is by establishing a robust framework that minimises the impact of predicted new virus mutations and the resultant economic damage, and lets business get on with doing what they do best – creating wealth and sustaining jobs.

Repeated phrases, “We want business back in business” have cropped up in countless media appearances by political leaders in recent days. Mantras and election mode do, of course, go hand in hand; but businesses need much more than slogans. Our political leaders must resolve the issues they face, so they can help businesses to resolve those that we face. Anything less would be unconscionable and unforgivable.

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