Caution and hope can go hand in hand

We have now passed a year of coronavirus restrictions, which have been applied at different levels for the last 12 months.

While undoubtedly necessary to limit the public health implications of the coronavirus, the restrictions have brought a heavy economic cost.

Support from Stormont and Westminster has been welcome, but for most businesses it doesn’t come close to the income they would receive if they were able to trade in normal circumstances. With the encouraging vaccine rollout and a significant reduction in cases, attention now turns to the potential easing of restrictions.

Some very minor easements have been announced; from Thursday, garden centres and plant nurseries will be permitted to operate click and collect. While the minimal nature of this relaxation has been a source of material for local comedian, Paddy Raff, it does, however, provide a lifeline for this sector to bring in some revenue and replenish stock. The remainder of ‘non-essential retail’ which is not yet allowed to operate click and collect will be able to do so from April 12, subject to a confirmatory meeting of the Executive after the Easter weekend.

FSB has been calling for these easements for some time, so we welcome them, but a cursory glance around other parts of UK, which have comparable levels of vaccine rollout, would suggest that Executive Ministers are being substantially more cautious than their counterparts elsewhere. For example, England looks set to permit restaurants and pubs to serve food and alcohol to customers sitting outdoors from April 12. In Wales, self-contained accommodation is permitted to open now while in Scotland, where the government has been notable for its caution throughout the pandemic, barbers and hairdressers are permitted to open from April 5 for appointments. Northern Ireland businesses are therefore looking enviously at their counterparts across the water.

Why is it the case that this discrepancy exists? The ‘Pathway out of restrictions’ document, which disappointingly for businesses does not contain provisional dates, sets out four main ‘overarching principles’ for decision-making. It states that restrictions should be ‘evidence-based’, ‘necessary’, ‘proportionate’ and ‘sustainable’.

Unfortunately, as well as being devoid of dates, the document does not set out which metrics will be used to make decisions and therefore it is impossible to ascertain whether these principles have been followed. Without a clearly laid out roadmap, or a clear process which guides us, we are potentially left with an ad hoc scenario where the metaphorical driver continues on the motorway, missing the appropriate exit, while arguing with the passengers about the right course of action and thus unnecessarily prolonging the length of the journey. At the end of last week, the Medical Director of Pfizer UK, which produced one of the key coronavirus vaccines, noted that there was an important balance to be struck between seeking to control the virus, whilst also avoiding the excessive economic and social impacts of staying locked down for too long.

The public health situation in Northern Ireland continues to look promising, with cases remaining low and half of the adult population having received their first dose of vaccine. Given that the Executive is moving more slowly out of restrictions than other parts of the UK, businesses and the wider public will ask why this is the case, and they are intrigued as to what evidence is being relied upon that means intense restrictions have to be extended for longer here. In order to ascertain whether restrictions are ‘necessary’ and ‘proportionate’ we must know what benchmarks the Executive are using. Is it related to the ‘R’ rate; or spare ICU capacity; or perhaps the number of new cases per day; or the ‘trump card’ of protecting against potential new variants? If the answer is all of the above, then businesses are right to fear that a reason could always be found to continue restrictions. By their own yardstick, the burden of proof should be on Ministers to outline why restrictions are necessary, and the default position should be that they are lifted, unless there is a well-evidenced argument why they need to remain in place.

The Executive meeting which is set for after the Easter weekend to confirm the April 12 relaxations should also be used as an opportunity to evaluate available data to judge whether or not there is the potential for further relaxation ahead of the formal review date on April 15. While caution is undoubtedly required, it is also the Executive’s duty to provide some hope and clarity for the weeks and months ahead to give leadership to a much beleaguered and frustrated public and business community.

A message from the Editor:

Thank you for reading this story on our website. While I have your attention, I also have an important request to make of you.

In order for us to continue to provide high quality and trusted local news on this free-to-read site, I am asking you to also please purchase a copy of our newspaper whenever you are able to do so.

Our journalists are highly trained and our content is independently regulated by IPSO to some of the most rigorous standards in the world. But being your eyes and ears comes at a price. So we need your support more than ever to buy our newspapers during this crisis.

With the coronavirus lockdown having a major impact on many of our local valued advertisers - and consequently the advertising that we receive - we are more reliant than ever on you helping us to provide you with news and information by buying a copy of our newspaper when you can safely.

You can also enjoy unlimited access to the best news from across Northern Ireland and the UK by subscribing to newsletter.co.uk

With a digital subscription, you can read more than five articles, see fewer ads, enjoy faster load times, and get access to exclusive newsletters and content. Visit https://www.newsletter.co.uk/subscriptions now to sign up.

Thank you