Northern Ireland's population to start shrinking sooner than previously thought
Northern Ireland’s population is going to shrink sooner than previously thought, after reaching a lower-than-anticipated peak.
The latest figures from the The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), published today, show the population of the Province is projected to start to decline in 2031, rather than 2033 as earlier calculated.
The decline in 2031 is also projected to begin from a lower peak of 1.94 million; the previous projection was for the population to hit 1.95 million before dropping in 2033.
This is an update to NISRA’s projections from January last year.
The figures last year had been based on population figures from 2022, but NISRA has now instead used figures from 2024 to inform its model.
By mid-2049 it is projected that there will be 1.91m people in Northern Ireland, a decline of roughly 1%.
Explaining how it calculates the figures, NISRA said in a statement: “Based on current and past demographic behaviours and trends, these new projections assume lower levels of international migration and lower future fertility than in the previous projections.
"For example, deaths are projected to exceed the number of births by mid-2030, one year earlier than previously projected.
"In addition, this negative natural change (more deaths than births) is projected to exceed net migration from 2031 onwards – two years earlier than previously projected.
"Net migration is projected to cause a population increase of 35,000 over the 25 years between 2024 and 2049 (an average of 1,400 more people per year).
"Over the same period, negative natural change is projected to cause a population decrease of 54,200 people (an average of 2,200 less people per year).”
NISRA’s projections from January 2025 had shown the extent to which immigration is shoring up the population of the Province.
At the time, the News Letter had reported that the UK-wide picture was that the nation is expected to increase in size from 69.9m people in 2026 to 81.6m by 2122 – a rise of about 15%, driven entirely by immigration.
But in Northern Ireland, where immigration levels are lower, the level of foreigners arriving would not be enough to offset the plunging birthrate among those who are already here, leading to a decline in overall population in the Province.
England is projected to grow by 5.5% by 2049, Scotland is expected to drop by 1.3%, and Wales is set to grow by 0.3%.
The latest NISRA projections also show the continuing ageing of the Northern Ireland population. The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost half (44.7%) over the 25 year projection period.
Likewise, the population aged 85 and over is projected to more than double (increasing by 126.1%) over the same period.
As soon as next year (i.e. mid-2027), there is projected to be more people aged 65 and over (375,600 people) than children aged 0-15 (365,700 children).
2022 Census-based population projections for the Republic of Ireland, published by the Central Statistics Office, project massive population growth.
The projections present three potential population growth scenarios based on different assumptions for net migration: high (29.6%), moderate (21.7%), and low (11.8%).