'Not a good scenario': Northern Irish economist says we shouldn't expect cheaper fuel any time in coming weeks
Northern Irish economist Esmond Birnie has painted a pessimistic picture for consumers, with little prospect of the pause in Iran hostilities leading to falling fuel costs at home.
The former UUP MLA was speaking after Northern Ireland saw its sixth consecutive week of petrol and diesel price rises, based on the Consumer Council’s weekly survey of forecourts across the Province.
As of Thursday, petrol in Northern Ireland stood at an average of 153.1ppl (up 22.6% since the start of the war) and diesel stood at 185.6ppl (up 39.9%).
Meanwhile the cost of home heating oil has been at over £1 per litre for six week, with 500 litres costing an average of £612.37 – virtually double the pre-war price.
There had been a drop in the price of the raw material behind both – crude oil – after the two-week ceasefire was agreed on Wednesday, with the price of a barrel of Brent crude dipping from about $110 to almost $90.
But it has been rebounding upwards again since, and was back at around $97 at time of writing, according to the Financial Times.
“I wouldn’t be that optimistic for several reasons,” Dr Birnie told the News Letter, when asked what the next few weeks will hold as far as fuel prices are concerned.
"There isn’t a clear passage yet established through the strait; in effect there’s a toll-booth arrangement.
"And undoubtedly, there’s been some hit to production in the Middle East and the Gulf in terms of damage to refineries and pipelines and so forth.
“So it isn’t just about a blockage to the tankers – it’s about filling them up.
"Probably the best we can hope for is there won’t be further large increases, but as to substantial downward movement, I don’t think it’s on the cards at the moment.
"Unfortunately it's not a terribly good scenario.
"There’s not going to be any huge improvement, and the worst case scenario is some prices continue to rise.”