Replace Protocol with an Economic Good Friday Agreement

When politicians struggle, people often look to business for leadership and answers.

There is a freedom that comes with considering problems and devising solutions in a relative vacuum; insulated from all the wider pressures that politicians must consider.

The NI Protocol may just be one of those challenges where business has a responsibility to step in and propose solutions because many are being experienced by business.

One of the challenges in a negotiation is to set a meaningful deadline; a point in time that all participants must respect so that all concessions and compromises that may eventually deliver agreement are on the table. The Belfast Agreement missed its ‘final’ deadline and, as a result, was concluded on 10 April 1998, thus entering history as The ‘Good Friday’ Agreement.

The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement is now approaching its 25th anniversary. It laid the foundation for a series of institutions, at the base of which is the NI Assembly, yet this is currently suspended. There is little point in playing the blame game, as every side has merit and de-merit in its position; better to focus on the solutions. And what better to focus minds than the 25th anniversary which, if we can reach agreement, could see NI move forward with a renewed sense of confidence and purpose. So let me propose this idea from the business sector.

The Good Friday Agreement brought together the most unlikely partners and drew to an end of the most horrendous periods in our history. President Clinton described it as a “work of surpassing genius” that allowed people to be British, Irish, or both. Importantly, it was an Agreement that had the explicit, democratically voted-upon endorsement of the people of NI.

By contrast, the NI Protocol is an agreement that the UK Government and the EU reached as a mechanism to allow NI to continue to operate in a position as the ‘Union in the Venn diagram’ between the UK and the EU whilst attempting to remain true to the Good Friday Agreement. But, the Protocol does not have the consent of the people of NI and it is devoid of input from business as to the impacts of its operation. So how do we move forward?

For businesses, we see a clear, albeit difficult path. The NI Protocol was conceived as the ‘insurance policy’ to manage the land interface between the EU and the UK, in the event of a “No deal Brexit”. Had the two parties failed to reach a wider deal, the Protocol would at least have facilitated the UK’s orderly departure. But in the end, the two parties signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement – the TCA – so there is an opportunity and a need to reconsider whether the Protocol is required at all.

There are two problems. The first is to refine a pragmatic arrangement that gives the EU confidence that its Single Market will be protected, whilst ensuring that the UK’s Internal Market will be equally respected. The second is to find a way of explaining and presenting it, such that it avoids polarisation and fostering a sense of loss.

The technicalities have been well rehearsed and both the EU and the UK have recognised that the Protocol, as first agreed, is unacceptable as it is causing problems that were not envisaged by its architects, as evinced by all sides proposing improvements. The real challenge is to get both parties to approach it in a fresh way - as informed experts and partners focussing on a identifying the best solutions to the problems.

If approached like that, then the second challenge becomes easier to address. Pose the problem to business and they suggest that, because of the existence of the TCA, the Protocol is no longer needed. Instead, it should be replaced by a new chapter to the TCA – not simply as a rebrand, but as a substantively changed agreement that has been facilitated by the wider TCA.

In essence, this new chapter must be an ‘Economic Good Friday Agreement’; a text that allows business to be ‘British, European, or both’; that protects the three Strands and facilitates internal NI trade; as well as barrier-free North South and East West trade. The Good Friday Agreement is not set in aspic. St Andrews, Hillsborough, Stormont House all saw evolution of the original; and so it can be with the Protocol. A series of measures to address the problems that both sides have come to accept, enshrined in a new chapter to the TCA, could deliver the necessary change to overcome the divisive aspects of the Protocol and, in consequence, provide a new basis on which the NI Assembly and Executive can resume.

It is a human problem; so let’s grasp this human solution and secure a prize that is truly worthy of a 25th anniversary celebration.