Stormont sets out cautious date-free route out of lockdown for NI – but with huge caveats

The five-stage road map published today does, however, emphasise that it will be a very long time before life returns to anything like what was normal before the pandemic.

Even at step five – the final stage – remote working will still be “strongly encouraged and maintained where possible” while restaurants, cafes and pubs will only open at that point “subject to risk assessment, on a limited basis to start with”.

First Minister Arlene Foster said that she hoped we would get to stage five by December – but made clear that would only be if the virus stays under control.

Today the Department of Health announced a further nine deaths, bringing its daily total to 447 – although the actual figure will be higher when all deaths are registered.

The document gives increased clarity as to the rough phase in which many activities will be legalised by Stormont.

But in the absence of even indicative timings last night the document was criticised by many business figures who, although welcoming it as progress, said that it is devoid of that crucial information which could help them plan.

Manufacturing NI said that “sadly there are no definitive dates”, while Retail NI said a target date would assist small retailers.

Last night Robin Mercer, owner of Hillmount Garden Centre, pleaded with Stormont to give him clarity which is had by his counterparts in England, where garden centres open tomorrow, and in the Republic, where they open tomorrow.

The documentation published by the Executive today contains some stark detail on the impact which the virus is having on wider society.

It said that initial assessments point to Northern Ireland’s economic output falling 25-30% –although that is slightly less than the 35% drop predicted for the entire UK economy, perhaps because the vast public sector will partially insulate Northern Ireland.

The document said: “At these rates, every month of lockdown will reduce annual output at the end of the year by around 2% to 3%. In simple terms, on its own,each month of shutdown is akin to a large recession”.

The Executive said that it would regularly review the regulations to see if the restrictions could be eased, taking into account factors including testing capacity, tracking and contact tracing. It noted that surveillance such as government apps would be encouraged if available but “no matter how good such apps are, they will have limited value unless used widely across society”.

The document makes clear that we are not yet at step one, which will be the first relaxation of the regulations imposed in March. Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill told the Assembly that it may be possible to get to step one in “the very immediate future” and suggested that may happen if the R number – the rate at which the virus is spreading – gets down to 0.5.

Today Arlene Foster revealed that the R number is currently at 0.79 – a very slight fall from 0.9 where it had been for two weeks.

The plan gives some indication of the order in which a host of activities may resume:

• Drive-in cinemas will be one of the few forms of public entertainment allowed in step one, alongside permission for drive-in church services and private prayer in churches as well as the reopening of garden centres.

• The first sports to resume, in step one, is golf, tennis and “some water activities”. There will be no competitive sport until step four – and even then behind closed doors or with limits on spectators.

• Step one will also make a significant difference to many of those missing family, with up to six people from different households allowed to meet outdoors if they keep two metres apart – but not including people who are shielding; indoor visits to immediate family will also be allowed if two metres apart.

• Schools will only open to all pupils – and then only on a part-time basis – at stage four, if there is no major resurgence of the virus by then.

• The public will be encouraged to walk or cycle short distances rather than use public transport – and be encouraged, though not compelled, to wear face coverings on buses and trains.

• Church services which can keep people two metres apart will be permitted from step four.

• Hairdressers will not reopen until step four, along with tattoo parlours and fitness studios.

The Executive said that its decisions on whether to further relax restrictions at each stage would be based on evidence and analysis of the pandemic including the latest medical and scientific advice, the estimated level of transmission and “the impact of relaxations on the future trajectory of the pandemic”.

It also said that the capacity of the health system to cope as well as the need to resume normal services would be considered, alongside a more complex assessment of the wider health, societal and economic impacts of the regulations, “including identifying the areas where greatest benefit and lowest risk would result from relaxation”.

Stormont’s leaders defended their decision to exclude target dates from the plan.

Mrs Foster said: “When I look at other documents that have dates attached to them, they’re actually so heavily caveated that one has to ask is it of any use, because actually when they get to that date they may not be able to move forward and then people will be disappointed that they can’t move forward in that way.”

At one point in the Assembly today Ms O’Neill told MLAs that “it will be September before schools are opened again in their normal fashion”.

She then quickly corrected that to say that even when schools open it will be “not in their normal fashion” and admited that it’s “a very confusing picture”, particularly for children.

Later, during the Executive’s daily press conference, Ms O’Neill appeared to contradict her party’s previous insistence that there had to be an all-island approach to fighting the virus.

When asked by Channel 4 News about whether Northern Ireland’s lack of dates in its plan meant that it now wouldn’t be moving in step with the Republic – which has dates – Ms O’Neill said “it’s not about that” and the decision would be based on scientific and medical evidence, implying the Northern Ireland should do what is best for itself, regardless of what the Republic does.