New report lists predictions for how much climate change will alter crop yields in Northern Ireland

The paper cites the percentage increases that can be expected for three plant varieties: winter wheat, perennial rye grass (used for cattle grazing), and oil seed rape.

yields of all three are expected to increase, often dramatically, the warmer the climate becomes.

The same paper also predicts that the number of heat-related deaths in Northern Ireland is also going to shoot up with a warmer climate – and that the fatalities will mostly be concentrated in rural areas.

The paper also contains the results of a survey of farmers, who listed the problems they are already facing as a result of climate change.

The paper is titled "The role of local knowledge in enhancing climate change risk assessments in rural Northern Ireland", and appears in the publication Climate Risk Management.

It has 17 authors from different universities, among them the Queen's University Belfast academic Dr Donal Mullan.

He said: “Growing up on a farm in rural west Tyrone, I have witnessed more unpredictable and extreme weather negatively affecting the timing and quality of crop and silage harvesting, slurry and fertiliser spreading, and livestock management.

"Climate change is not a distant problem for some other place – it is happening right now and impacting our rural communities right here in Northern Ireland, and it is only going to get worse as the climate warms.”

The report cites figures showing that, if the average temperature rises to 2C above pre-industrial levels (as expected sometime in the middle of the century) then it could lead to perennial rye grass yields rising by between 5% and 10%, winter wheat yields increasing between roughly 15% and 40%, and oil seed rape rising by roughly 15% to 18%.

However at 4C warming, the rye grass yields could increase by as much as 35%, winter wheat by roughly 40% to 70%, and oil seed rape by up to about 40%.

These figures vary depending on what part of Northern Ireland you look at, and whether or not you take account of "CO2 fertilisation" (meaning the increased photosynthesis that comes with higher CO2 levels in the air).

Meanwhile, the paper predicts a very slight decrease in milk yields with a warmer climate.

On excess heat deaths, the paper says that, assuming a rising population in the Province, a 2C rise in temperature by 2080 could lead to roughly 22 annual excess heat deaths, while a 4C rise could cause 98.

For context, the paper cites figures estimating that the 2018 heatwave led to about seven deaths.

"At 2C warming, 72–73% of mortality is projected to occur in rural areas despite having a low population density, dropping to 66–68% at 4C warming," says the paper.

The authors also staged meetings in Omagh, Ballymoney, Ballynahinch and Dungannon, where they asked farmers: “What impact on your farm have you noticed as a result of changes in extreme weather patterns?”

Some 113 answered, with 42 citing "precipitation-related" effects, 35 reporting "unpredictability-related" effects, and 13 reporting "temperature-related" effects.

Several complained of having to house cattle more frequently, "with further impacts noted on animal health and disease risk (eg, pneumonia)".

The report adds: "Impacts on grass growth were also commonly reported, with increased poaching of fields (ie, damage to grass and soil due to trampling by livestock while fields are too wet), increased need for re-seeding and reduced silage quantity and/or quality all reported."