Coronavirus: QUB virus expert says total shutdown of NI society needed immediately

Whilst professor Ultan Power said the move would be “radical” he stressed that it appears necessary to avoid soaring numbers of serious infections as Covid-19 spreads.

Prof Ultan, originally from Waterford but working at Queen’s University Belfast since 2004, focuses on respiratory viruses in particular (like Covid-19).

He was speaking shortly before the Prime Minister Boris Johnson today said the time has come for people to stop “non-essential contact with others”.

However, the government has stopped short of shutting NI schools or enforcing people remaining housebound.

Prof Ultan said the authorities should adopt “really strong social distancing practices” adding: “That may include closing schools, universities, working-from-home policies, large gatherings, maybe even pubs and clubs and restaurants.

“We have the benefit of hindsight. We know what happened in Wuhan. We know what’s happening in China.

“We know what Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea did, and their interventions have had major impacts on the rate of transmission and the death rate associated with the virus.

“If you look at data from the rest of China outside of the Hubei region – and Wuhan city particularly – the transmission has been very, very low even though they’re the closest people to the original epicentre.

“My feeling is that the UK government are not acting quick enough... Last week I was less vocal about it, because I still think there’s some stuff we need to learn.

“But I was working over the weekend just to plot out some of the data in terms of death rates, and it just was so startlingly obvious to me that the death rate is going at the exact same rate as what is happening in Italy, and unless very significant interventions are taken very quickly, we’re likely to end up in the same situation.

“I’m of the frame of mind today that we need to close down pretty much everything”

He said this is the “nuclear” option and “would absolutely be a radical approach”.

But he added “the alternative is we end up with what’s happening in Italy” (where there have been 27,980 cases and 2,150-plus deaths).

He said the numbers infected in both the Republic and Northern Ireland are “still relatively low”.

“So if we take radical action now, things like banning air transport, travel unless its absolutely necessary, we have the possibility of containing the infection within the community ...

“It’ll be much easier to do it now with the numbers we have than two months’ time when the numbers are in thousands – or hundreds of thousands.

“If we do that now we have the possibility of killing this dead in its tracks before it takes hold here.”

He said Tuesday will be the quietest St Patrick’s for a long time, adding: “If this is what it takes to stem the tide of the transmission of the virus through the community, so be it.”

His own calculations suggested that, based on the pre-crackdown period of the virus when it emerged in Wuhan, if Northern Ireland continued as it was going up until today then it could lead to perhaps 11,000 cases in Northern Ireland, of which 2,250 or so would be “severe”, with maybe 400 or so deaths.

He said however that there should be no “blame game” when it comes to the authorities’ reaction to the virus, stressing that it is “an evolving situation – we’ve never been confronted with this before”.

One other aspect of the viral spread which he was keen to emphasise was that in some countries the general public have been good at heeding the advice about washing their hands for 20 seconds, and being generally conscientious about hygiene.

However, he also said that there are indications that this falls by the wayside when people are at home – and urged readers to continue observing the cleanliness rules even in their own house, to stem transmission of the virus domestically.