Bobby Storey funeral ‘dangerous’ says virus expert as he estimates over 7,000 lives saved by lockdown

Dr Connor Bamford, who studies viruses and immunity (in particular lung-based conditions) at Queen’s University Belfast, added his voice to the furore around the funeral gathering, when several thousand people came out to pay their respects to the dead IRA chief last Tuesday.

Sinn Fein have been widely criticised for their leading role in the funeral, with some calling for Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill to quit.

Dr Bamford said: “We know this virus can spread between people in close contact.

“It is especially dangerous when there are so many people. It can be risky, because you can pass the virus on to many people if there’s just one person there who has an infection and doesn’t realise it – that’s why we have these social distancing measures in place.”

On March 11, Mr Bamford had said that it would “not be a wild speculation” to imagine 50% of the Northern Irish population getting the virus (roughly 950,000 people).

He made the prediction after Health Minister Robin Swann warned that “according to the scientific advice that we are getting” the figure could in fact be as high as 80% (about 1.5 million people).

Dr Bamford also estimated the mortality rate could be about 1% at the time.

Applying that to both scenarios above would have spelled 9,500 deaths (if 50% of people got it) or 15,000 (if 80%) of people got it.

But the lockdown brought the amount of infections “way, way down”, he said.

“If we did nothing, that is how many people would be infected [50% to 80%],” he said.

“We’re beginning to learn more and more about he mortality rate. It’s probably revised downwards to be about 0.5%, so that’s one-in-200 people infected.”

As to how many lives the lockdown saved, he estimated that – with a potential infection rate of 80% of the population, coupled with one-in-200 of those people dying – roughly 7,500 lives had been spared.

He added: “That’s really how important lockdown was. We bought ourselves some time. But we mustn’t waste that going forward.

“The virus inevitably will creep back into the UK and Northern Ireland, and we must be able to control it effectively.”

He told the News Letter that he remains “cautiously optimistic” that despite the recent ban on pubs and restaurants being lifted (alongside social distancing measures) Northern Ireland is “in a good place”, and that if there is a new outbreak it can be “localised”.

According to the prestigious Johns Hopkins University in the USA, America leads the way by far in terms of total number of Covid-related deaths, with 129,947 yesterday.

Next worst was Brazil, with 64,867 deaths. And the UK came in third, with 44,305 deaths.

In Northern Ireland, the number of deaths is 554 (according to the Department of Health yesterday).

A message from the Editor:

Thank you for reading this story on our website. While I have your attention, I also have an important request to make of you.

With the coronavirus lockdown having a major impact on many of our advertisers - and consequently the revenue we receive - we are more reliant than ever on you taking out a digital subscription.

Subscribe to newsletter.co.uk and enjoy unlimited access to the best Northern Ireland and UK news and information online and on our app. With a digital subscription, you can read more than 5 articles, see fewer ads, enjoy faster load times, and get access to exclusive newsletters and content. Visit https://www.newsletter.co.uk/subscriptions now to sign up.

Our journalism costs money and we rely on advertising, print and digital revenues to help to support them. By supporting us, we are able to support you in providing trusted, fact-checked content for this website.

Alistair Bushe