Discharge of patients to care homes not to blame for virus outbreaks in NI, research finds

That is according to new research commissioned by the Stormont health department.

The latest figures from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency show that care home residents account for 469 of the 1,053 coronavirus-linked deaths in Northern Ireland.

Health Minister Robin Swann has welcomed the findings of the new research, which was carried out by Dr Niall Herity, a consultant cardiologist at the Belfast Trust.

Mr Swann, who has resisted calls from human rights groups and the trade union Unison for a public inquiry into the number of coronavirus deaths in care homes, had also commissioned a ‘Rapid Learning Initiative’ to identify lessons from the first wave.

Dr Herrity’s research, Mr Swann said, would complement that earlier work.

The consultant cardiologist looked at whether there was a correlation between the number of patients being discharged from hospitals and infection rates in care homes.

He did not find a correlation.

Dr Herrity examined the number of patients who were discharged from hospital to a care home and who later tested positive for the virus.

He examined, specifically, two weeks in March when the number of patients being discharged to care homes was higher than average.

“If this population of people had been an important source of Covid-19 outbreaks in care homes after discharge, I would have expected a substantial proportion to have had a positive Covid test in either the first or second week after the date of discharge,” Dr Herrity writes in his report.

“Among the 465 people, one tested positive in the first week after discharge and four more tested positive in the second week after discharge.”

He also found an overall decline in the numbers of people discharged from hospitals to care homes from mid to late March onwards .

His research found that the timing of outbreaks in care homes during the first wave appeared to correlate more closely with overall hospital admissions rates for the virus, something the Stormont health department say aligns with research from Scotland and Wales.

Health Minister Robin Swann said: “Care homes remain on the frontline in the battle against Covid-19. This research complements my Department’s Rapid Learning Initiative which also examined the first surge in the sector.”