As new coronavirus curbs announced for NI scientists say R number has actually dropped in past week

Despite the re-introduction of some lockdown measures in NI, figures released late on Thursday night indicate that the R number has gone down in the past week.
By Adam Kula
Published 10th Sep 2020, 21:08 BST
Updated 10th Sep 2020, 21:40 BST
Lab technicians handle suspected COVID-19 samplesLab technicians handle suspected COVID-19 samples
Lab technicians handle suspected COVID-19 samples

The number is basically an estimate of how many people are likely to be infected at any given time.

An R number of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of infections is stable.

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If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people.

If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is growing. If R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.

On August 27 (two weeks ago) the R number was between 1.0 and 1.6.

On September 3 (one week ago) it was 1.1 to 1.6.

But tonight the figure published by the Department of Health for Northern Ireland was 0.3 to 1.4.

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Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Ian Young said: “Given the current estimate for R is lower than it has been in previous weeks it might be assumed that the position in Northern Ireland is improving – however this is not case.

“We’ve consistently said there are a range of indicators which need to be taken into account to assess the true position.”

He added: “If we look back to July, less than one test in 200 was positive.

“This has steadily been increasing and we’re now seeing about one positive case for every 50 tests.

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“Fortunately hospital admissions have remained stable and are at a relatively low level. However we are seeing an increase in the percentage of cases in the over 60s group and this is could be cause for concern.

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Related topics:Northern IrelandDepartment of Health