NI Virologist warns: ‘We need to drive the virus down with testing, tracing and isolating before we can think about opening society up again’

While Boris announced unlimited exercise time outside the home, urged workers to return to their jobs if they could not work from home, and even spoke of potential school openings from June, Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill gave a clear, decelerated and measured five-step roadmap to the long road back to normality.

They announced that their guidlines would be led by the science and by the health service’s ability to cope.

Dr Bamford said: “I think it is great to finally have a plan and on face value this roadmap looks sensible as there are no time commitments, it is moderate and flexible.”

He has given the plan an endorsement although remains concerned about how we hope to address the ‘R’ rating. The R-value - or reproduction number - is at the heart of the Executive’s decision to extend the lockdown until at least this month.

‘R’ refers to the average number of people that someone with Covid-19 is expected to infect after contracting the virus.

The goal is to keep the R-rate under one.

Northern Ireland’s R-rate is sitting below one, at 0.79, but it must fall as low as possible before restrictions can begin to be lifted.

Dr Bamford said; “I think it is great to finally have a plan and on face value this roadmap looks sensible as there are no time commitments, it is moderate and flexible.

“My biggest concern with this approach is the lack of communication around how we hope to keep the virus at bay by reducing the ‘R value’ while we relieve lockdown.

“It’s highly likely that the virus is very much still out there and we need more assurances how we would contain local flare ups where the ‘R value’ goes above one.

“We could do this with enhanced community testing combined with contact tracing and isolation. Furthermore, we must have a commitment that the most vulnerable in the care sector will have enhanced protection.”

Dr Bamford was also pleased to hear Boris had finally come up with a plan for a way back to normal society following his somewhat confused speech to the nation on Monday night.

“However some of it was really mixed messages. You know this idea that people should if possible return to work and yet not use public transport to get there. I think that will result in a lot of confusion.

“I mean if you are out mixing in parks or attending workplaces that haven’t been properly set up to facilitate adequate social distancing measures then that it surely only likely to increase the rate of infection and as a clinician that concerns me.

“Without robust social distancing and without going out there after the virus to pinpoint where it is in the community, that increases the risk of a spike in infection rates. We can’t be in lockdown forever, not just from an economic perpective but also because people are getting sick from other things as a result of regular appointments or treatments being put on hold during the pandemic. But I’m not so sure about the time span that Boris is putting on this because really what you want to do is really go after the virus and find out where it is in the community. I’m not aware of any data where people are looking at measurements of how much virus is in the community here in Northern Ireland, for example.

“We need to try to track this on the ground. One way would be to use an app that would track symptoms and who people had been in contact with.

“We need to drive the virus down with testing, tracing and isolating before we can think about opening society up again.”

And Dr Bamford added: “I can see social distancing being a part of this until we have a vaccine. Social distancing is relatively easy and safe to do, so I think it is an effective weapon in the battle against coronavirus. It could be a year, it could be two years, it could be intermittent, it may be that people with underlying health conditions have to be willing to practice it for a while longer.”

Earlier this week First Minister Arlene Foster said the Executive’s recovery strategy “sets out a pathway for us to emerge from lockdown in the safest way possible”.

“This will require a series of judgements and decisions as we move forward. These decisions will be evidence based, taking account of our unique circumstances here in Northern Ireland.

“As we embark on our phased recovery, we will remain focused on the health and wellbeing of our population; the impacts on our society; and our economy as a whole. Above all else, our priority will be saving lives.”

Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said: “We don’t underestimate the impact that the severe restrictions have had on everyone across our society. While they are still absolutely necessary, it is important that we give people hope for the future.

“Today we have set out our pathway for future recovery which gives an indication of how the restrictions on different aspects of life may be eased at various stages.

“The incremental five-step approach reflects the risk-based judgements we will make at each stage. These decisions will be evidenced by medical and scientific advice and benchmarked against our guiding principles and international best practice.

“The Executive’s strategy is not time bound because it’s vital that we retain the flexibility needed to respond to the complex emerging situation based on all relevant evidence.

“Our recovery from coronavirus will require a real partnership effort with the community. We are appealing to the public to please be patient. Keep adhering to the restrictions, follow the public health advice and stay at home. We will keep you updated every step of the way when we are in a position to slowly and carefully move out of lockdown.”

While Boris moved to a ‘stay alert’ imperative, the advice here is still to ‘stay at home’ seen by many was the only way to completely protect the health service from becoming overburdened by covid patients.

Northern Ireland’s blueprint does not contain a timetable, although the First Minister hopes thay we will reach the very final stages of implementation of the plan long before December - perhaps a much more distant time frame than many had envisaged and hoped for.

Some of the changes announced include churches being able to facilitate private prayer, groups of up to six people not from the same household being allowed to meet outdoors provided they practice social distancing and large outdoor based retailers such as garden centres being allowed to reopen.

There was also encouragement for those who cannot work from home to return to their jobs on a phased basis, and outdoor spaces and public amenities to open.

The next phase, to be reviewed in three weeks, a process that will continue throughout the easing process so that time-frames remain pliant, would include non-food retail reopening provided social distancing is praticed, groups of up to ten people meeting outdoors, selected libraries to re-open with resticted services and open air museums to open.

Phased return to office and on-site working subject to risk assessment would be the next part of the plan, with work that can be done from home still to be enouraged. Schools will then be allowed to expand provision for priority groups, one assumes the children of key workers or children with special educational needs,on a part-time basis, using a combination of in-school and remote learning.

Restaurants, cafes and pubs won’t be re-opening until the fifth stage of the plan, hoped to be reached by much earlier than December, subject to risk-assessment and on a limited basis. And while all of us should then be able to return to work subject to mitigations, remote working will continue to be strongly recommended, while nightclubs and concerts will also be allowed to open by then albeit strictly on a limited basis.

Regular life will not be returning for quite some time and for many businesses there is real frustration and anger about the proposed lengthy time-frame and arguable lack of clarity - with many calling for dates when they can hope to re-open premises to be specifically announced.