R-number NI: This is what the R-number in Northern Ireland currently is

The Department of Health (DoH) has published its first weekly report on the value of the R-number (COVID-19 reproduction number).
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The DoH will now publish details on the value of the COVID-19 reproduction number in Northern Ireland every Thursday.

The current estimate of R is 0.7 – 0.9 enabling the Executive decision today to ease some restrictions.

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It is important to model the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland in order to plan the delivery of Health and Social Care services and to inform decision making with regard to social distancing and other restrictions.

The Department of Health has committed to publishing the details concerning the value of the R-number in Northern Ireland. (Photo: PA Wire)The Department of Health has committed to publishing the details concerning the value of the R-number in Northern Ireland. (Photo: PA Wire)
The Department of Health has committed to publishing the details concerning the value of the R-number in Northern Ireland. (Photo: PA Wire)

Central to this modelling is estimating the Reproduction Number (R). R is the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single person with the infection.

R does not have a fixed value and varies with time.

It is likely to be different every day.

There are different ways of calculating R and a number of different values for R each day are produced. That is why the number is being published in the form of banding.

When R is above one, the transmission of the epidemic will increase, resulting in more cases, hospital admissions and deaths.

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The greater the value of R above one, the more rapid the increase.

When R is below one, there will be a fall in the number of cases, hospital admissions and deaths.

The further R is below one, the more rapid the fall will be.

The Executive has indicated that keeping R below one is a key objective as we move forward in the epidemic.