Three ‘superspreaders’ could be behind rise in Derry and Strabane case numbers

That is according to the chief scientific advisor to the Stormont government, Professor Ian Young, when he was asked for the reasons for the surge in cases in the council area.

The rise in cases over just a few weeks has catapulted the Derry and Strabane area from one of the most Covid-free in the UK to the number one hotspot.

The latest data from Stormont health authorities shows that, over the past week, there have been 870 cases for every 100,000 people in Derry and Strabane — compared to a Northern Ireland average of 339.

Speaking to BBC Radio Foyle yesterday morning, Professor Young said that while he couldn’t pinpoint exactly how the surge started, it was “almost certainly” down to one or more “particularly infectious” individual people.

“We don’t know exactly where it started,” he said. “I think it’s likely a number of factors fed into it.

“Almost certainly there were one, two, maybe three what we call ‘superspreader events’ — somebody who was particularly infectious and was in contact with a very large number of people and spread the virus to them.

“But we don’t know when and where those events took place.”

He said the spread of the disease has now moved past the initial ‘superspreader events’.

“At the moment, there’s much more widespread community transmission — lots of small groups of clusters occurring in a wide variety of settings,” he explained.

Localised restrictions were imposed on the council area around a fortnight ago.

Professor Young said these were now starting to have an impact, with a reduction in the rate at which case numbers in the area have been doubling.

“Stopping the transmission of the virus is a bit like turning around an ocean liner,” he said.

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