Virology Professor: Pubs and cafes will open ‘for sure’ as warmer weather arrives - as should holiday cottages

Prof Bert Rima of Queens University Belfast said the “seasonality” of the virus seen across Europe “seems well established” and could be a significant factor in helping ease lockdown as the weather warms up.

His comments come amid widespread concerns about the effects of lockdown on the mental health across the UK.

Prof Rima and the Department of Health (DoH) have previously acknowledged that Covid tends to follow a similar seasonal pattern to flu.

Asked if he believed therefore that life might return closer to normal as warmer weather arrives - especially in light of vaccinations - he replied: “Yes, I do believe that there is reason to believe that the summer will see a possibility to reduce the restrictions.

“The seasonality of the virus seems well established from the fact that most European countries had a second wave starting at more or less the same time though there had been many varied ways of dealing with the pandemic.”

He added: “For the summer, I foresee that outside sports and all outside activities - beaches, mountains - will be open as well as pub and cafe terraces.”

Outdoor facilities of pubs and restaurants will open “for sure” but indoor facilities may depend on the roll out of ‘vaccination passports’ he says.

“I cannot see any reason to not open holiday cottages,” he adds. However he is more uncertain about hotels, cinemas and theatres as believes they carry a much greater chance of transmission.

The academic, who recently had his Covid jab, did urge a note of caution that it was not possible to be definitive about the relationship between weather and infection rates due to the impact of test trace on controlling the virus last summer.

A DoH spokeswoman said: “Whilst there is likely to be a seasonal element to the Sars-Cov-2 virus which may contribute to lower transmission during the summer period, it is not possible to be certain as to levels of virus transmission in the coming months as there are a number of additional factors to be considered including the effects of vaccination and the impact of new variants of the virus.”

DoH will also continue to roll out jabs “at pace” with a substantial proportion of adults to be offered them by summer of this year. However easing pandemic restrictions is a matter for the Stormont Executive, she added.

If vaccination projections are achieved by summer, restrictions on indoor social activities maye be eased further, Prof Rima says.

“It then depends to what extent they are willing to introduce a vaccine passport for such activities as theatre and cinema attendance and hotel bookings,” he said. “At this time it would be manifestly unfair to introduce this when only a minority is vaccinated. At a later time when all have had the chance to be vaccinated but some may have declined, there can be further discussion about privileges associated with a vaccination passport.”

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