Mid-Ulster area had ‘highest’ excess winter mortality rate 2020/21

This report shows the provisional number of deaths that took place in Northern Ireland in the winter months of December 2020 to March 2021, compared with the non-winter months (including the preceding August to November 2020 and the following April to July 2021).

In comparison, the lowest EWMI was in the Belfast Trust where 7.7 per cent more deaths occurred in the winter months, than in the non-winter months.

Meanwhile the regional EWMI in 2020/21 for the Southern Trust was with 41.4 per cent more deaths occurring in the winter months - and Ards & North Down had the lowest EWMI, with 7.3 per cent more deaths occurring in the winter months.

According to the statistics there were 6,340 deaths in Northern Ireland in the four months of winter 2020/21 (December to March).

Comparing this with the average for the two adjacent 4-month periods, the seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2020/21 was an estimated 1,120.

This was 590 more than the corresponding value of 530 for the previous winter (2019/20) and the second highest level of EWM since 1999/2000, with the exception of 2017/18 when the last big flu epidemic occurred.

The impact of Covid-19 on excess winter mortality in Northern Ireland in 2019/20 was to reduce the EWM total – because the majority of Covid-19 deaths had occurred in non-winter months (particularly April to July).

However, the impact of Covid-19 on excess winter mortality in 2020/21 was reversed as it inflated the total number of winter deaths.

By removing all deaths where Covid-19 was the underlying cause of death from the analysis and re-calculating EWM for 2020/21, the excess winter mortality reduced to 200.

The report adds that excess winter mortality (EWM) continued to be higher in females compared with males, with females accounting for 53.4 per cent (600) and males counting for 46.6 per cent (520) of the excess winter mortality in 2020/21.

The leading cause of excess winter deaths was ‘all other causes’ due to inclusion of Covid-19 in this category, accounting for 83.3 per cent of the excess winter mortality in 2020/21.

In Northern Ireland, deaths in the winter months were 21.4 per cent higher than in the adjacent non-winter months – this proportion is the EWM Index (EWMI).

See more about from the statistics here

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