More severe restrictions could be needed: Experts

Without a significant decline in Covid transmissions health experts in NI have said that more severe restrictions will need to be considered from mid-December.
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In the Irish Republic there is talk of another lockdown with Ireland’s chief medical officer saying cancelling plans to socialise in the run-up to Christmas would be a “responsible decision”.

A further paper is needed to back up the introduction of mandatory passports in NI, but in the meantime the modelling paper presented yesterday at Stormont notes that ICU occupancy and deaths have decreased in the last week, but stresses that there is a time lag on those indicators.

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The health department experts state that without further intervention “as soon as possible”, modelling suggests that hospital capacity will be exceeded in mid-December, if the current trajectory follows a central pathway.

'Don't help the virus spread' government coronavirus sign'Don't help the virus spread' government coronavirus sign
'Don't help the virus spread' government coronavirus sign

The paper states: “Evidence suggests that adherence to guidelines by the public is declining and that there has been very low uptake of Covid certification on a voluntary basis by the hospitality sector.”

It says mitigations like face mask use and work from home guidance will be unlikely to bring the reproduction rate below one unless they are accompanied by “widespread use of Covid certification across higher risk settings”.

It says without a significant decline in community transmission in the next three weeks “there is a risk that more severe restrictions will need to be considered from mid-December to avoid hospital capacity from being overwhelmed”.

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