​More than 14,000 cancer cases every year in NI  by 2040

The charity combined Northern Ireland Cancer Registry projections with their own data to forecast that if current trends continue, cancer cases will rise from 10,000 diagnosed per year now, to more than 14,000 in 2040.

In Northern Ireland it’s estimated that:

*There will be 6,700 cancer deaths each year by 2040, an increase of around 50% from the 4,500 seen now.

*In total, there could be around 230,000 new cases of cancer and 106,600 cancer deaths between 2023 and 2040.

*The majority of these cases and deaths will be in people aged 70 and over (61% of cases and 79% of deaths).

Cancer Research UK says that that whilst cancer survival has improved over time for many cancer types, the average age of cancer patients at diagnosis in Northern Ireland will have risen by 2040 – six in 10 cases will be in people aged 70 and over (up from around five in 10 currently).

This means there will be more people with a higher risk of developing cancer, more cancer survivors requiring follow-up care and more patients with complex needs.

Cancer Research UK’s public affairs manager in Northern Ireland, Margaret Carr, said: “Northern Ireland’s health service is already at breaking point. It’s deeply worrying that our number of cancer cases is projected to rise so markedly, mainly because we’ll see larger numbers of older cancer patients with more complex care needs.

“Northern Ireland’s cancer strategy, published last year, includes actions to deal with increased demand, but it is effectively on hold due to the absence of an Executive. Inaction is putting increased pressure on health professionals and ultimately putting the lives of cancer patients at risk.

“The implementation of the strategy – and the agreed budget to do so – is critical to prepare Northern Ireland’s cancer services for the future.”

The charity says there must be action to address chronic staff and equipment shortages across the HSC sector. According to a recent publication from the Department of Health, one in 10 posts in Northern Ireland’s health service are vacant.**

Around four in 10 cancer cases in Northern Ireland are preventable and the two biggest preventable causes of cancer are smoking and overweight and obesity.

If recent trends continue, smoking could cause around one million cancer cases in the UK between now and 2040, and by 2040, there could be more people who are obese than a healthy weight in Northern Ireland.

Cancer Research UK’s chief clinician, Professor Charles Swanton, said: “Right now, the health service in Northern Ireland is just about treading water. By the end of the next decade, if left unaided, the HSC risks being overwhelmed by the sheer number of new cancer diagnoses. It takes up to 15 years to train an oncologist, pathologist, radiologist or surgeon. The health service must start planning now to give patients the support they will so desperately need."

“I’m hopeful that through investment and reform the health service and advancements in research, future numbers of cancer cases might not be as high as these projections warn. But without the budget and an implementation plan to prepare for this demand, there’s a risk that our hard-fought progress in cancer survival could go into reverse.”