More than 14,000 cancer cases every year predicted in Northern Ireland by 2040

The number of people in Northern Ireland diagnosed with cancer will increase by almost 50% by 2040, taking the number of new cases to more than 14,000 for the first time, says a report by Cancer Research UK.

The charity combined Northern Ireland Cancer Registry projections with their own data to forecast that if current trends continue, cancer cases will rise from 10,000 diagnosed per year now, to more than 14,000 in 2040. In Northern Ireland it’s estimated that:

There will be 6,700 cancer deaths each year by 2040, an increase of around 50% from the 4,500 seen now.

In total, there could be around 230,000 new cases of cancer and 106,600 cancer deaths between 2023 and 2040.

The majority of these cases and deaths will be in people aged 70 and over (61% of cases and 79% of deaths).

Cancer Research UK says that that whilst cancer survival has improved over time for many cancer types, the average age of cancer patients at diagnosis in Northern Ireland will have risen by 2040 – six in ten cases will be in people aged 70 and over (up from around 5 in 10 currently). This means there will be more people with a higher risk of developing cancer, more cancer survivors requiring follow-up care and more patients with complex needs.

Cancer Research UK’s public affairs manager in Northern Ireland, Margaret Carr, said:  “Northern Ireland’s health service is already at breaking point. It’s deeply worrying that our number of cancer cases is projected to rise so markedly, mainly because we’ll see larger numbers of older cancer patients with more complex care needs.

“Northern Ireland’s cancer strategy, published last year, includes actions to deal with increased demand, but it is effectively on hold due to the absence of an Executive. Inaction is putting increased pressure on health professionals and ultimately putting the lives of cancer patients at risk.  

“The implementation of the strategy – and the agreed budget to do so – is critical to prepare Northern Ireland’s cancer services for the future.”

The charity says there must be action to address chronic staff and equipment shortages across the HSC sector. According to a recent publication from the Department of Health, one in ten posts in Northern Ireland’s health service are vacant. Around four in ten cancer cases in Northern Ireland are preventable and the two biggest preventable causes of cancer are smoking and obesity. If recent trends continue, smoking could cause around one million cancer cases in the UK between now and 2040, and by 2040, there could be more people who are obese than a healthy weight in Northern Ireland.

Cancer Research UK’s chief clinician, Professor Charles Swanton, said: “Right now, the health service in Northern Ireland is just about treading water. By the end of the next decade, if left unaided, the HSC risks being overwhelmed by the sheer number of new cancer diagnoses. It takes up to 15 years to train an oncologist, pathologist, radiologist or surgeon. The health service must start planning now to give patients the support they will so desperately need.

“I’m hopeful that through investment and reform the health service and advancements in research, future numbers of cancer cases might not be as high as these projections warn. But without the budget and an implementation plan to prepare for this demand, there’s a risk that our hard-fought progress in cancer survival could go into reverse.”

WORLD CANCER DAY: JOIN THE FIGHT

World Cancer Day is an international initiative, uniting people across the globe to raise awareness and take action.

To mark the awareness day on February 4, Cancer Research UK is calling on the public to help support life-saving research.

The charity has been at the heart of the progress that has seen cancer survival in the UK double in the last 40 years and spent over £2 million in Northern Ireland last year on some of the UK’s leading scientific and clinical research.

With rising cancer cases, and a struggling health service, research such as this is more important than ever to help unlock new and better ways to beat the disease.

People in Northern Ireland can show their solidarity and support on February 4 by:

Picking up a World Cancer Day Unity Band from a Cancer Research UK shop, while stocks last

Donating monthly to help fund long-term research projects that could lead to new discoveries and save lives for generations to come

Support life-saving research at cruk.org/donate.