Analysis: Poll shows real momentum for Leave, but undecided still the key unknown
If the 20 percent which this poll says remain undecided – and that number actually increased slightly from the previous month’s poll – were to be split evenly and between both camps, that would equate to a final split of 60-40 in favour of Remain in Northern Ireland.
Such a narrow result in a part of the UK where support for the EU was believed to have been strong would have been predicted by few people at the start of the campaign.
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Hide AdBut rather than split evenly, in the final days of a referendum campaign more of the undecided are likely to plump for the status quo – in this case, Remain – rather than take what is generally perceived to be a riskier option.
That was what happened in the Scottish referendum and could mean that the 20 per cent undecided actually split something like 15-5 in favour of Remain.
Nevertheless, there is some evidence in this campaign that – in line with an unpredictable global political climate which has seen the shock emergence of Syriza, Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump – the old rules are not necessarily applying.
In fact, over the last week it has been the Leave camp which has been gathering real momentum.
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Hide AdTurnout will be crucial, with the belief that Leave supporters are more motivated and therefore benefit from a low turnout.
With many voters still open to backing either side, there could yet be a pronounced swing back towards Remain in the final days. But it’s getting very late.