Book imagines worldwide nightmare security scenarios

Conflict in the Middle East, tensions between the US and North Korea and even uncertainties around Brexit are also adding to the turmoil which is the subject of a new book speculating on what the future holds.

In ‘2020: World of War’, edited by Professor Paul Cornish and Kingsley Donaldson, various plausible scenarios are examined in detail – including the almost unthinkable state of affairs with several catastrophic events occurring simultaneously.

Kingsley Donaldson, a former senior Army officer and brother of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP, is the managing director of the Causeway Institute peace-building organisation.

Former Nato secretary-general Lord Robertson said the scenarios described in the book, which was launched in London last week, are credible.

“This informed and expert book examines credible scenarios of what might happen, could happen, and hopefully won’t happen,” he said.

The publishers described the book as “both timely and necessary,” and said the detailed and focused discussion of emerging defence and security issues “is deliberately designed to generate a discussion amongst not just policy makers, scrutineers and opinion formers.”

They go on to say: “These issues are just too important to ignore and too complex just to be left to politicians and military men to sort.

“The book sets out a series of dangerous, but plausible scenarios that ‘depicts 21st century international security as a complex of interwoven pressures, challenges, hazards and threats’. Critically, the book avoids overly military prescriptions and advocates the need for a real joined-up government and governance approach to dealing with complex crises.”

Of the seven scenarios envisaged, the first is based on China destabilising the Asia-Pacific region, the second on a war between India and Pakistan over control of southern Afghanistan, the third around a resurrected Islamic caliphate in Europe, the fourth based on criminals and terrorists dominating cyber-space leading to the collapse of UK border security, the fifth involving a cyber attack taking out the UK power grid, the sixth based around the disintegration of the United Kingdom post-Brexit and the seventh – “What if several (or all) of these scenarios occurred simultaneously?”

The authors say the message of the book is clear: “If peace is to be preserved as some sort of recognisable state, and today’s complex international security environment is to be managed effectively to that end, policy-makers and strategists must have the capacity and the confidence to deal with a wide-range of evolving security challenges.”

• ‘2020: World of War’ is available in Waterstones and Easons and online at Amazon.