Chancellor George Osborne visits Warrenpoint to warn that Brexit would hit NI hard

George Osborne chose a visit to Warrenpoint Port in Co Down, which is a stone’s throw from the Irish Republic, to outline his fears for the region if there is a vote to exit the European Union.

“Let’s be clear, if we quit the EU then this is going to be the border with the European Union,” he said, pointing to the Carlingford Lough waterway which separates the jurisdictions.

“And all the things that those that want to quit the EU claim would happen – ie new immigration checkpoints, border controls and an end to free movement – that has a real consequence, and there would have to be a real hardening of the border imposed either by the British government or indeed by the Irish government.”

Leave campaigners in Northern Ireland, including Secretary of State Theresa Villiers, have insisted the impact on the Irish border will not be significant in the event of an exit.

Mr Osborne painted a very different picture of the border post-Brexit as he met with port workers in Warrenpoint.

He said the imposition of trade tariffs to export goods into the EU would rock Northern Irish businesses trading with the Republic of Ireland.

“I was just talking to a guy who drives a truck – he remembers when it used to take two hours to get across the border and, as a result, business wouldn’t come here, jobs wouldn’t come here, people would trade directly with the Republic,” Mr Osborne said.

The leading Conservative politician was shown round the docks at Warrenpoint and boarded a ship. He was also shown timber that is transported across frontiers via the port.

He was also due to cross the Irish land border.

During his visit to Co Down, Mr Osborne pointed to a new analysis of Treasury figures to suggest unemployment would rise by 14,000 in Northern Ireland over two years if the UK left the European Union, with 2,000 added to the youth unemployment figure.

He said the impact of the shock from leaving the EU and the free trade single market could equate to a £1.3 billion reduction in the size of the Northern Ireland economy by 2018, with house prices falling by £18,000 over the same period.

“This would become the border with the European Union if we vote to quit, and that would mean fewer jobs in Northern Ireland, that would mean family incomes hit, it would mean the value of people’s homes and pensions would fall, and that’s not a price worth paying,” he argued. “Why take this leap in the dark with all the costs and risks associated with it? There is a strong, brighter future in a reformed EU if we vote to Remain.”

Mr Osborne also stressed the need to maintain strong links with the Irish Republic in the context of co-operating against security threats.

He added: “When it comes to Northern Ireland and its future, I would say we have made massive progress over the last 20 years, massive progress in my lifetime, and one of the things you have seen is essentially the disappearance of the border as a physical place, a check, and talking with the folk here, they were saying people who work here live on both sides of the border, people travel easily.

“So you just don’t know what would happen as the border starts to harden and this becomes the external border with the European Union, and here we would be on the wrong side of it.”

The Chancellor said Brexit would spell particular bad news for Northern Ireland’s farmers, who currently receive hundreds of millions of pounds of direct annual support through the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

“Farmers get two benefits from the EU,” he said. “Firstly they can trade their products and goods – their milk, their beef, their lamb and the like – and one of the things the EU does is have very tough external tariffs on trading into the EU, and our farmers would suddenly be outside the EU paying a tax to send things to the Republic and continental Europe.

“And then you have the Common Agricultural Policy – and that’s direct support to farmers. Close to 90% of farming incomes here come from EU support payments.

“What would happen if we left? The country, the whole UK, would have less money.

“Why would we have less money? Although we wouldn’t be paying into the EU budget, our economy would be poorer, we ‘d be raising less taxes, there would be less money for public services, so a Chancellor of the Exchequer would have to make choices – the budget would be shrinking and where are the cuts going to be felt? And I can’t see why farming would be excluded from those cuts.”

One of the key messages of the Chancellor’s visit was a call to voters who have not already registered to do so before Today’s deadline.

South Down SDLP MP and Remain advocate Margaret Ritchie accompanied Mr Osborne on his visit.

“The EU referendum is particularly important to the people of South Down as we are a border constituency, we rely on cross border receipts, we rely on jobs and investment,” said the SDLP representative.

Ms Ritchie insisted the future should be about breaking down barriers between north and south, not creating new ones.

“Anything that would re-permit the emergence of a barrier or a customs point would naturally present problems because it would take that much longer for the transfer of goods and services,” she added.

Leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party and arch Euro-sceptic Jim Allister dismissed Mr Osborne’s words of warning.

“George Osborne’s claims today about the border with the Republic of Ireland are his pitiful attempt to create a local version of Project Fear,” he said.

“He claimed that we would have to pay a tariff on goods to the Republic. Wrong. The free trade area stretches from non-EU Iceland to non-EU Turkey.”

Mr Allister said the balance of trade meant the EU needed the UK more than it needed the EU.

“Thus the trade arrangements resulting from Brexit will not prejudice the UK,” he said.

“Why would the EU cut off its nose to spite its face? It won’t.

“That being the case, tit for tat tariffs are not above all in the interest of the EU.

“Equally, the Chancellor’s claims about border controls have no basis in reality. The Common Travel Area between the UK and the Republic pre-dates the EU (1923) and includes the non-EU Isle of Man and the non-EU Channel Islands. It is the CTA which means we have never had, nor will have, a passport border.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the Remain camp are spooked by the polls. The British public are not buying into Project Fear.

“However, having no positive case to make for the anti-democratic, unreformable and discredited EU, Remain have nothing else to offer.”On Sunday Mr Osborne met young supporters of the NI Stronger In campaign in Belfast, as he urged people to check they are registered to vote ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.