NI surpasses 1,000 Covid fatalities with official confirmation expected tomorrow

Even before the NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) makes its formal weekly announcement on the death toll, other sources of data examined by the News Letter already show that, at some point over the past several days, fatalities have almost certainly strayed into four figures.

Jim Shannon, DUP health spokesman in Westminster (whose own family has been harmed by Covid-19), said many citizens will look upon the landmark figure with “great sadness” – and that it will serve as a reminder to obey all the anti-virus advice (see sidebar).

The first case of coronavirus in NI was confirmed on February 29.

The first death linked to it was on March 18.

Fatalities peaked in late April, then declined to nearly nothing, and are now rebounding again.

To understand Northern Ireland’s journey to 1,000 deaths, it is necessary to understand how the figures are gathered.

Throughout the crisis there has been a difference of opinion about the best way to tally up coronavirus deaths.

There are two main sources for the statistics.

One is NISRA, the Province’s official statistics experts.

NISRA publishes its death figures in weekly bulletins each Friday.

Its numbers are based on death certificates that mention Covid-19, regardless of whether or not it was the cause of death.

Its latest figures from last Friday cover the period until October 23, giving 972 deaths.

The Department of Health also produces figures, which are published daily.

It has stricter criteria for recording Covid deaths, counting only cases where the deceased had tested positive for Covid-19 and then died within a 28 day period (again, whether or not Covid-19 was the cause of death).

This leads to a lower deaths figure (for example the department’s figure, as of yesterday, was 740 deaths).

The reason the News Letter can be so confident that NISRA’s 1,000-death milestone has already been passed is because it would only have taken another 28 deaths before NISRA’s fatalities entered the realm of four-figures.

And from October 24 to October 30, the Department of Health’s daily updates cite a total of 63 fatalities.

Since the department is stricter about recording Covid fatalities than NISRA is, this all-but guarantees that NISRA’s own Friday figures will far surpass the 1,000 mark.

Jim Shannon said: “It’s with great sadness we record the 1,000th death due to Covid-19 in Northern Ireland. It reminds us all we’re only here for a short time, and this disease has been horrible and cruel.

“It’s a milestone we didn’t want to come upon. Can we beat it? Yes we can.

“But we must do it together. We can’t have people going off on a tangent and doing their own thing.”

His own mother-in-law had tested positive for coronavirus and died on October 17.

The family could not even hold the funeral until October 27 because some of them were isolating.

The 1,000 figure is far lower than the worst-case scenarios Robin Swann warned of eight months ago.

In March Mr Swann, referring to medical modelling, said a worst case scenario in which “we fail as a community to take action to slow down the transmission” could lead to 15,200 deaths.

This was later revised downwards to a possible 3,000 deaths in the first wave.

On the flip side, viral expert Ultan Power has previously told the News Letter NI can expect far fewer winter flu deaths due to anti-Covid measures.

READ MORE FROM THE NEWS LETTER:

CLICK HERE: NI statistics show life has actually improved for many since start of Covid outbreak

CLICK HERE: Academic: It’s hard to find words for how badly NI’s economy has been damaged by Covid measures

CLICK HERE: Widow of Stephen Carroll speaks out after Channel 4 News gives platform to his killer

CLICK HERE: NI motorists warned about travelling south of border due to hundreds of checkpoints

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