Alex Kane: Abandoned DUP left high, dry and mostly friendless

The party they had propped up in government since June 2017 backed a deal knowing that a key element was unacceptable to the DUP and similarly unacceptable to the UUP, TUV, PUP and the overwhelming majority of unionism. And for all their attempts to put on a brave face the DUP leadership was hurt.

They had built up a close relationship with the ERG and believed that the ‘Spartan’ wing would always be on their side. They invited Johnson to their annual conference last year, believing that the presence of the ‘most popular Tory in a generation’ would serve as a fillip and bolster grassroots confidence after Theresa May’s backstop. Johnson stood alongside Foster, Donaldson and Dodds at the Conservative conference two weeks ago, cheered to the rafters by hundreds of delegates at the DUP’s fringe event. And yet ... he still shafted them.

On Saturday afternoon I noted, ‘Johnson’s Brexit setback means the DUP were lucky today, but they must now tread very carefully’. Jeffrey Donaldson, whom I have known for 30 years and with whom I have always enjoyed a very good relationship, replied: ‘That was not down to luck. It was using votes wisely and to maximum effect. There will be many crucial votes in the next few days. The government now know that 10 DUP votes make a huge difference.’

But the government has known since June 2017 that those 10 votes would make a huge difference. Johnson would have known that his proposals on the border and consent were unacceptable to unionism. Last Sunday Nigel Dodds said: “There is a lot of stuff coming from Brussels, pushed by the Europeans in the last hours, but one thing is sure: Northern Ireland must remain fully part of the UK customs union. And Boris Johnson knows it very well.” Yet despite knowing it very well, Johnson ploughed ahead.

Not only did he plough ahead – he went for broke. He saw the ERG members singly and in groups. Former NI secretary Owen Patterson had a massive hissy fit about the deal, yet backed the PM. Another former NI secretary, Theresa Villiers, had been put on a ‘resignation watch list’ by Number 10, yet backed the PM. James Brokenshire and Karen Bradley backed the prime minister. The present NI Secretary, Julian Smith (who, as a former chief whip, knew precisely where the DUP red lines where) backed the deal.

Johnson was also at his most emollient. Calm, generous, open-handed, even occasionally charming, taking time to address the concerns of individual MPs; doing everything he could, in other words, to ensure the Letwin amendment (which would withhold Parliamentary approval of his deal until after the implementing legislation had been passed) wouldn’t gather a majority. There had been rumours that the DUP might abstain on Letwin, but with numbers so tight they couldn’t risk the absence of their votes giving victory to Johnson.

But here’s the most crucial point in all of this: at this stage of the game and after almost 30 months of Parliamentary cooperation (during which DUP votes were the crucial factor in division after division), the DUP should not be having to fire warning shots over Johnson’s bows. Sammy Wilson should not be forced to issue this sort of press statement on a Sunday: ‘DUP MPs supported the Letwin amendment as the only avenue available to properly scrutinise the deal on offer and attempt to secure changes that could address some of the concerns we have. It was a situation that could have been easily avoided had the prime minister kept to words he penned to Jean-Claude Juncker just a matter of two weeks ago ...”

Where stands the ‘precious union’ when both Theresa May and Boris Johnson seem prepared to play fast and loose with it? More important, what does the DUP do now? Johnson will be trying to offer them reassurances to bring them on board for votes today and tomorrow; but can they have any faith in those reassurances. He has, after all, let them down three times already. Their other worry is that he will still be able to muster the votes he needs from elsewhere (and let’s not forget that he surprised a lot of people when he actually managed to bring a deal to the Commons and mobilise his parliamentary party and ERG colleagues behind it), leaving the DUP high, dry and mostly friendless.

A number of times in this column I have suggested that the DUP, although they would never admit it openly, would be very happy if the whole Brexit problem disappeared and, in so doing, get them off an awful lot of hooks; most of which they never expected to be on in June 2016. There is a very real danger (although nothing is certain in politics anymore) that they could find themselves in the worst possible position: abandoned by Johnson and having to live with a deal that he manages to get through. What the DUP would do at that point is anybody’s guess.

There is a belief in some quarters that Johnson is still working towards a no deal. Some unionists like the sound of that, assuming that the collapse of this deal means that NI would be shot of the current proposals on the border. Hmm. Given what he has done in the past two years I’m not persuaded that Johnson, particularly if he were to win a reasonable majority in an election, would be any friend of Northern Ireland or ‘Ulster’ unionism. And, having tested him and found him wanting, I’m not sure to whom the DUP could turn in those circumstances.

For the DUP, as with every unionist party, the Union must eclipse and predominate every other issue and circumstance. The DUP will have to tread enormously cautiously over the next few days (they may not have the luxury of weeks). It will also require the party’s leadership to display a statesmanship, understanding of brutal realities and strategic nous which hasn’t always been evident since June 2017.