Alex Kane: Stormont quagmire leads us to a very deep, dark place

I was struck because since the Assembly was rebooted on January 11 I have been asked the same question by upwards of a hundred people (a mixture of politicians, journalists, those working in the business and community sectors and people I bump into in shops, forecourts, or just walking along); “How long do you think it will last this time?”

I think the politicians had hoped for some expression of public gratitude when they returned to work, yet the loudest sound thundering up the hill to Stormont that Saturday afternoon was a collective, “About bloody time!”

Any hope of a honeymoon phase was dashed within 72 hours, when it became clear that none of the parties – and not just the DUP and Sinn Fein – had bothered to tie down the funding arrangements before their whirlwind occupation of the chamber and the immediate restoration of their previously reduced salaries.

Since then there has been a squabble a day and disagreements on the airwaves, culminating in the present ferocious row over whether Conor Murphy is fit for office after his comments about the brutal torture and murder of Paul Quinn 13 years ago; another destabilising reminder that the past is always in front of us here.

At the time of writing I don’t know if he intends to resign voluntarily, or chooses to apologise to the Quinn family (hoping, I presume, that will take pressure off him); or whether, depending on how well Sinn Fein does in Saturday’s election, Mary Lou McDonald will find herself in a strong enough position to force a decision upon him.

Four years ago the UUP resigned from the Executive after concerns about IRA activity and the continuing presence of the IRA Army Council: would the party do the same again if the Murphy ‘problem’ isn’t resolved to its satisfaction?

And what about the DUP, bearing in mind that Sammy Wilson and at least one MLA have demanded Murphy’s resignation? I haven’t heard a single member of Sinn Fein, let alone one of its elected representatives or leadership team, call upon Murphy to ‘consider his position’, which suggests that he retains significant support across the party.

All in all it has been a nightmare start for the ‘new’ Assembly and there is very little evidence that things will improve; and let’s not forget that the official report of the RHI Inquiry will be published on March 13, with the likelihood of embarrassment for some very senior political figures.

I have still to see much in the way of detail for a collectively agreed Programme for Government, but the tendency to adopt the silo mentality approach to individual departments seems to be rearing its ugly, unhelpful head again.

In 1998 there was a very real sense of hope after the referendum. I think that hope was there again in 2007 (when the DUP and Sinn Fein surprised us with their seeming willingness to work together). Is there similar hope today? Indeed, is there any hope today? Let me put those questions in a different form.

Is there any reason to believe that the forces which drove the system and structures to the point of destruction a number of times over the past 20 years have lessened to any significant degree; is there any evidence that the toxicity at the heart of government (the toxicity which Martin McGuinness highlighted in his January 2017 resignation letter) has been diluted; is there anything to suggest that unionism and nationalism (in either their ‘moderate’ or ‘extreme’ forms) can work together in common cause and purpose?

The answer to all of those questions is no. Not a shrug-of-the-shoulders-I-don’t-really-know type of no, but a thumping great, unavoidable NO. The language coming from the UUP and SDLP isn’t actually much more positive than the language coming from the DUP and Sinn Fein.

The middle ground trundles out the same mantras, yet, in Alliance’s case, is helping to prop up an Executive which it almost certainly knows is as dysfunctional as previous Executives. There is no formal, official opposition, although I have heard a great deal of nonsense from parties pretending that the best way of holding the Executive to account is from the inside. That didn’t work from 2007 to 2015 and I’ve no reason to suppose it will work now.

I had hoped, albeit with little conviction, that the parties might, finally, have realised they were running on empty and living on borrowed time – in terms of public confidence – but the last month has led me to the same old conclusion: it has not been and it will not be possible to create anything capable of being described as a ‘normal’ Executive here.

The huge, unresolved issues will remain huge and unresolved; and will be added to with more huge and unresolved issues over time. In essence we are stuck in a time warp, Einstein’s theory of madness (if you do the same thing the same way every time you will produce the same result) writ large in political form. Even Groundhog Day held out the hope of personal redemption through lessons learned.

No matter which way I examine the problem we face with governance here I cannot find a solution which can ever suit both sides (and, for those about to say it, Irish unity will not bring us together in any meaningful form, either).

At some point the past must assist us in finding a way to cope with the present and prepare for the future; but, for the life of me, I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

We are in a quagmire and unless we find a way out we are going to be sucked down, down into a very deep, dark and unpleasant place.