As John Penrose says, ‘no deal’ cannot be taken off the table

The prime minister has said that there will be no meaningful vote in Westminster until around March 12, days before the deadline for the UK to leave the EU later that month.

With MPs defecting from both Labour and the Conservatives to the Independent Group, and with ministers threatening to resign unless ‘no deal’ is taken off the table, there is a real prospect of a Remain majority of MPs taking control of events to prevent that outcome.

But while the prospect of ‘no deal’ is an alarming one, particularly for unionists, given that London might well in that scenario railroad through nationalist and Irish demands of full NI-EU alignment, while it tries to tackle multiple other challenges, the prospect of MPs seizing control of events is also alarming. They will dilute Brexit to such an extent that it will almost certainly result in an electoral public backlash.

Most sensible political leaders must realise this when they watch programmes such as Question Time, and see the widespread public perception that elitist politicians are trying to thwart the UK’s departure from the EU.

It was pleasing this weekend to learn that a minister in the Northern Ireland Office (often a home for weak politicians who never under challenge Irish rhetoric, regardless of how provocative it is) explain why ‘no deal’ cannot be ruled out. John Penrose said such a pledge “wouldn’t just massively weaken the prime minister’s negotiating position. It could torpedo Brexit completely, leaving us in a ‘Hotel California’ Brexit, where we’d checked out but could never leave”.

This is so obviously so that it is startling it needs to be said.

With Simon Coveney making clear that only clarification on the backstop is on offer, ‘no deal’ gets ever closer. There is however a powerful argument to be made for a limited Article 50 delay to July 1 to prepare for a managed ‘no deal’ UK exit.