Ben Lowry: Signs of friendliness among unionist politicians but not yet of any major realignment

​It was a striking image because it conveyed a sense of camaraderie among parties that have been rivals, sometimes bitter rivals, for more than 50 years – albeit with periods when they have worked together, such as after the Anglo Irish Agreement in 1985.

Robbie Butler MLA, who is UUP deputy leader, tweeted out the picture showing his DUP counterpart Gavin Robinson MP, the DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP and the UUP leader, Doug Beattie MLA. He added the message: “Coffee and chats are always welcome.”

The happy scene was widely noticed in the political world, where pundits wondered: is this the sign of a coming pact? Mr Butler was asked about this and said that he “absolutely” ruled out any pact with the DUP in the Westminster election, which is likely to be called a year or so from now, autumn of 2024. "It's about political cooperation,” he told the Nolan show, “in terms of what's best for Northern Ireland."

I have met with or spoken to a number of politicians across the unionist spectrum to try to get a sense of where things might be going. Unionism fell almost level with nationalism in terms of number of Stormont seats in the assembly election last year, although as observers including me pointed out it was still ahead of nationalism in the number of votes cast. But Sinn Fein became the largest party, which was the key headline (unionists would still have had the right to nominate a first minister under the 1998 rules).

Then in this year’s council election unionists for the first time fell behind nationalists in terms of percentage of the votes cast. There was immediate talk of a need for change. Mike Nesbitt, for example, suggested a future in which there might be two unionist parties, a moderate one and a conservative one. In my own columns and radio broadcasts I wondered aloud about a realignment given that much of the DUP and UUP are indistinguishable in their views.

One thing has gone off the radar completely among politicians: a single unionist party. It was a popular idea a decade or so ago but now there is a feeling that a liberal unionist party is essential to stop more votes moving to the Alliance Party. There is also a widespread acceptance of the idea that unionism cannot fully embrace liberalism for two reasons: first because many unionist voters are conservative on a range of issues such as social and moral matters, and second because unionism will seem fundamentally weak if there is no movement that is uncompromising on core unionist principles.

So the need for some change is the easy bit. But how? The DUP, which is still by far the largest unionist party, is never going to vote itself out of existence. But nor is the UUP. Its supposedly disastrous council election in May saw it winning almost half as many votes as the DUP, which shows that a massive proportion of unionist voters, around 30% of them, simply will not transfer to the DUP, no matter what. There is now a wide understanding of the idea that a merger between the DUP and UUP or anything resembling that would risk a large tranche of voters going off to Alliance. Incidentally, I have been arguing against the idea that the UUP and SDLP are ‘finished’, as so many critics love to say. In election after election the are getting 20% of the vote between them, more than the Alliance Party has ever done. An army of voters want to register their preference for parties defined by their position on the constitutional question, but will not move to the DUP or Sinn Fein.

As I understand it, there have been friendly contacts between the highest levels of the DUP and the UUP for some time. There are no plans for a pact, just as Mr Butler says. But there might well be an understanding in some areas. The approach that unionists might take in Fermanagh and South Tyrone will be different to the approach taken in parts of the east of Northern Ireland, where the challenge to unionism comes from Alliance, and not from Sinn Fein.

While there is a growing sense that some Alliance voters now regard unionism with greater distaste than they do SF, and that the party leaders are more often in alliance with the latter on key issues since Brexit, but also that at least half of Alliance supporters are pro Union and some of them could be persuaded to return unionism that is not seen as toxic, for example by highlighting Alliance’s woke stance on matters such as trans policy – an issue that harmed the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon.

But while UUP votes are seen as vital, a more urgent political question is whether or not the DUP will return to Stormont. On this, it is much harder to see a path forward for the party. There is clearly a split on the matter, one that becomes ever more apparent. We had a front page story this week in which the DUP leader in the Lords, Lord Dodds, said that a report by a committee of peers on the multiple uncertainties around the Windsor Framework showed that Rishi Sunak’s deal with the EU had “utterly failed” the party’s seven tests for a return (see link below). Sir Jeffrey’s assessment of the framework seems less scathing than that and he emphasises that the party is expecting answers from the government this summer over the framework.

If some sort of legal protection for the Union is forthcoming will he, and other DUP politicians who seem prepared to go back to Stormont, such as Mr Robinson, break from their colleagues who dismiss any such legal pledges as meaningless in the face of the Irish Sea border? The former have a narrow majority in the party officers, the body which takes key decisions. Sir Jeffrey insists that there is no fundamental split, so implies no need for that.

I have talked to conservatives who think not, particularly given the unhappy precedent of David Trimble pressing ahead in a party that was divided 50:50 on his Belfast Agreement. We will see. But it is clear that there are a number of wings within unionism that cannot be reconciled without some sort of rupture.

Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter editor

A new House of Lords report into the Windsor Framework shows that it 'utterly fails' the DUP's seven tests, says Nigel Dodds