Brian Pope: ​​Ireland’s bailout conditions is NI's best chance of economic recovery​​​​​​​

The Republic of Ireland is ranked No.1 in the world for economic performance according to the recent IMD World Competitiveness Ranking for 2023 and was only narrowly beaten by Denmark for the overall competitiveness award.
Northern Ireland has the benefit of access to the EU and preferential access to the UK marketNorthern Ireland has the benefit of access to the EU and preferential access to the UK market
Northern Ireland has the benefit of access to the EU and preferential access to the UK market

​This is a remarkable reversal of fortune, as it was only back in 2010 when Ireland was forced to accept an €85 billion bailout following the global economic downturn and banking crisis.

There is no doubt that Ireland's historic low corporation tax rate of 12.5% has been a significant factor in attracting inward investment and boosting tax receipts.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

The Irish economy will reap a budget surplus of €10bn this year, which could increase to €20bn by 2026. However, as this has been driven mostly by strong corporation tax receipts there has speculation as to whether they will reduce over the longer term. There is now a debate in the south as to whether they save these funds into a new sovereign wealth fund, reduce tax for the population, or spend it on infrastructure and other public works projects.

So, are there any lessons here for Northern Ireland, and how exactly did Ireland turnaround their economy?

Taking us back to 2008, when the international banking crisis occurred and then the EU bailout, it is possible that the conditions that were imposed upon Ireland by the EU, as part of the agreed economic adjustment programme, became the catalyst for this remarkable turnaround.

Furthermore, under EU rules, Ireland needs to produce a Stability Programme Update which enforces a more rigid and disciplined approach to fiscal expenditure, borrowing, risks and business opportunities.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Having implemented the spending cuts, asset sales and reforms required under the bailout, Ireland was able to access international finance again and reset its domestic policy.

Its appears that rigorous fiscal management could have set Ireland on a sustained path of economic growth.

Is it then possible that Northern Ireland could replicate their policies and boost the economy north of the border?

At present, Northern Ireland faces its own public finance crisis, which is affecting public services and businesses. It has occurred, partly because of the cost-of-living crisis, driven by the rise in international energy and commodity prices, and is partly homegrown.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Stormont's failure to make difficult, and sometime unpopular, decisions has undoubtedly exacerbated the situation. Whether this is reform of the Water Industry, where developers are currently struggling to get their projects connected due to severe constraints in the network, or other economic enablers - like reducing corporation tax rates.

To go down this path some painful choices would be required like a review of the current free giveaways, a step towards Water Charges, investment in skills and infrastructure, or lowering of certain taxes to drive economic growth.

To create a stable and thriving economy this will be necessary, regardless of whether your constitutional preference.

Besides, Northern Ireland is in a stronger position than Ireland was in 2010 as we have the benefit of access to the EU and preferential access to the UK market.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

As we approach 18 months since the then-First Minster Paul Givan resigned it is time to look ahead.

If a UKgov bailout is agreed over the coming months, I believe it must be accompanied by a strict set of conditions that will set our economy on an upwards trajectory. As Stormont seems unable to take tough economic decisions, I believe these should be included any UKgov bailout agreement.

It is simply not good enough to go cap-in-hand to Westminster once again without the imposition of strict economic growth rules.

The Republic's economy is going from strength to strength, delivering impressive surpluses, whilst we struggle to find enough cash to fill potholes in our roads.

We should therefore learn the lessons from Ireland and use our own financial crisis to press the reset button.

Brian Pope Chartered Civil Engineer and former councillor at ABC Borough Council