Alex Kane: Coronavirus could banish all our old certainties for good

That’s what always happens after a crisis. It happened in July 1945 when the electorate installed a Labour government with a massive majority, even though there was national gratitude for Churchill’s leadership.

It happened in May 1979 when the electorate took a risk with Margaret Thatcher (and the younger generation today really has no idea how genuinely revolutionary a woman prime minister seemed at the time) because they were sick of socialism, strikes, trade union power over successive governments and inflation.

At both those moments there was a very evident sense of the desire for change; a new way of doing political business, if you like. I think we will see that again, when the electorate is finally given the chance to pass judgment on the present government and its handling of the crisis. An unexpectedly large body-count (especially when compared to other countries) could swing a substantial number of votes, particularly if there is a belief that government inaction was responsible for the deaths. But there will be other considerations.

Soaring unemployment (some economists are already citing figures of around four million); tax increases and cuts in public spending (which will be inevitable with the scale of national debt we’ll face); a possible continuing and lengthy lockdown for some sections of the population; continuing fears – in the absence of certainty about vaccines and immunity – about second or third (maybe even fourth) surges of the virus; and some ongoing aspects of the restrictions associated with the present lockdown: all of these factors, along with many others, will determine Boris Johnson’s future and post-crisis legacy.

In my case, I think I will be ok for the time being. That’s because I have observed the lockdown recommendations and Kerri has been very careful when she has had to go to the supermarket. We are also very fortunate in having a garden and lots of space in it (along with a trampoline, vegetable plot and outdoor games) to keep us occupied, meaning that exercise and fresh air is not an issue for us. At the beginning of March I was very worried and believed I would be lucky to survive.

But I still worry about what happens when the lockdown eases and shops begin to reopen? If the ‘surge’ has been contained but the virus is still with us, how do I know I won’t come into contact with it a few weeks later? What happens if there are predictions of another surge towards the end of the year; a time of long nights, short days and much colder weather? Will we see lockdown reimposed? Will businesses be closed again? What happens if we still don’t have a vaccine? What happens if the usual seasonal flu (which kills around 30,000+ or so people every year) coincides with an upturn in CV-19 casualties?

Economic recovery needs to be fuelled by a feeling of certainty; yet we may not have those certainties anytime soon. Try getting a loan on the basis that nobody really has a clue what is likely to happen a few months down the road. Try bringing down unemployment levels when there is very little certainty or optimism among the key lenders. Try rebuilding a country when people believe there is a smudge of virus in every nook, cranny, surface and human contact.

So, the government won’t merely be judged by what it did between January and the end of the first surge. There could yet be enormous anger at the scale of death, yet the brutal fact remains that the anger will be lessened if the next phase of the crisis (ending the lockdown, returning millions to work, a clear plan for rebuilding and demonstrable evidence that the threat from the virus is diminishing) is handled well. At this point we have no hard evidence on any of those crucial issues.

Another factor can be described as the post-Corbyn impact. Johnson was blessed in having Corbyn as his chief electoral opponent, in the same way that Thatcher was blessed with Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock. But Sir Keir Starmer could be a different kettle of fish and a much greater problem for Johnson (who isn’t surrounded by a great circle of talent in his Cabinet or parliamentary benches). That said, Starmer has to be careful about how he tackles the prime minister during a national crisis.

This crisis won’t disappear anytime soon. In most crises what passes for a ‘normal’ life for the vast majority of people will continue. They will continue to go to work and the economy will continue to function, even if it takes a hit. Lockdown (something which we didn’t have at the height of the Troubles here, or even during the two world wars) is the key difference this time. And, so far, there are no guarantees – not even close to it, in fact – that when lockdown ends we simply reboot, reset and return to where we left off. That’s why this crisis is so different; so devastating.

All of which means that there will, almost certainly, be huge political/societal changes as we find a way through and beyond the crisis. Some old norms will return, but there will also be new norms emerging, too. I also suspect that many of us will have found out things about ourselves and our resilience over the past few months, as well as gaining a new understanding of our relationships and interdependence. And, to be honest, that will be no bad thing. Indeed, it may be most important and lasting consequence of the crisis.

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