Alex Kane: DUP deep in crisis mode and with no easy way out

Last week Sam McBride reported the leaked minute of a meeting of the DUP’s South Antrim association at the end of February (see link below).

Many concerns were aired: the party wouldn’t remain the largest after the next election; it’s on the back foot and drastic change is required; anger within the loyalist/unionist community boiling over; outlook for the party not improving and something needed to be done; unionism turning in on itself.

Some complaints were specific: TUV social media posts were described as more knowledgeable than the DUP’s; “We are losing, with no strategy, no vision and because of media reaction”; “When you get the likes of Sammy Wilson being outspoken then people are asking what is the party doing. People within the party are asking too”; “(We need to) rein in people from the top who step outside the rules”; “Sinn Fein told what to say. DUP should do the same.”

What was particularly interesting about the front page story was the DUP’s general silence. If this had been an embarrassing leak about the UUP, TUV or any other party they would have been stomping all over it. But they kept quiet.

That’s because they know it’s true and an accurate reflection of concerns across the party. Indeed, the press office probably heaved a sigh of relief none of the minutes included personal criticism of Arlene Foster from key players.

There was a time nothing leaked from the DUP. Nothing. Now there’s leaking and briefing on an industrial scale: indicating widespread internal anger and concern.

I know this because I remember the same thing happening with the industrial scale briefing against David Trimble and UUP policy in that key period between 2001 and early 2004 – ending with the DUP eclipsing the UUP in the 2003 Assembly election and the defection of Foster and Donaldson (along with others) to the DUP.

I also know the leak is an accurate reflection because it’s what journalists and columnists have been hearing below-the-radar for some time: and a lot of what I’ve been told has found its way into my commentary. The DUP is well aware of the scale and mountainous nature of the problems and challenges it faces. Its elected representatives hear it every day from within their own constituencies.

They are rattled. For all the talk of legal challenges to the protocol and something resembling a unionist unity response, they know that continuing anger could manifest itself at the ballot box in just over a year. And most likely against them.

This is the most interesting comment: “(There is) need for engagement with individuals and (to) come up with pacts for constituencies ... seriously need to shake ourselves as the perception of unionism has changed.”

Yes, the perception of unionism has changed: how we are seen by others and how we see ourselves. I wrote over a year ago that I thought electoral pacts would become inevitable, particularly if there was a fear of unionism losing the keys to the first minister’s office: so I won’t be surprised if that’s what happens. Indeed, the coming together of unionism around opposition to the protocol may be the warming-up preparation.

I know my nationalist/republican readers (who mostly come to the column online) will have had their hackles raised by the mention of a unionist pact. So it’s worth remembering that the SDLP and Sinn Fein were able to conclude an electoral arrangement during the 2019 general election, because their bigger, broader view on Brexit outweighed their other very obvious political differences.

So it would be no surprise if unionism’s bigger, broader view on the damage the protocol may do to NI’s constitutional position also outweighed the other very obvious differences between the UUP, DUP, TUV and PUP.

In an ‘election special’ supplement for the News Letter just before the 2017 Assembly election I raised the issue of the possibility of unionism losing its overall majority (partly to do with the reduction of seats from 108 to 90). I erred on the side of optimism – which I rarely do – and thought it wouldn’t happen until a later election.

Well, it happened and it was a huge psychological blow to unionism. Losing the office of first minister in 2022 would be an even bigger blow in terms of psychology and perception.

I’m aware there is an argument building within certain elements of unionism to not even run the risk of unionist unity saving the day. Instead, they think unionism should simply walk away from the Executive if the protocol issue isn’t resolved to their satisfaction.

Maybe they think such a strategy would maximise unionist votes at the election due in 2022 (the NDNA agreement makes an earlier election almost impossible, I think), but I’m not sure I share their confidence.

Anyway, it may be an option (because of internal party pressure and separate types of pressure from the TUV and LCC) Arlene Foster and her leadership team will have to consider. She needs to tread carefully, though. Elections in 2017 and 2019 did unionism no favours and the DUP’s relationship with the Conservatives ended in disaster.

She may not yet be toast in terms of leadership, but she can expect the grilling to become more intense.

• Leaked DUP minutes show dismay at party’s direction

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