Alex Kane: Michelle O’Neill should front up to damage that she’s done

In all likelihood, nothing would or will happen. Sinn Fein may not have the numbers to trigger a petition of concern, but it does seem to have the numbers to ensure that such a motion wouldn’t clear the cross-community threshold required for it to succeed. And even if the motion crossed the threshold, it strikes me as very unlikely that O’Neill would resign. So she would probably just smile and carry on in her role as deputy first minister.

But what does Arlene Foster do in that case? She has said that O’Neill should stand aside. Senior figures in her party have said O’Neill should stand aside. How could she stand at joint press conferences with her again, knowing that a majority in the Assembly had no confidence in her? Indeed, wouldn’t the very act of standing beside her in those circumstances bleed the Executive of yet more authority?

And what about Colum Eastwood, Naomi Long and Steve Aiken, all of whom have called for O’Neill to stand aside? How could they possibly return to an Executive if she had lost the support of the Assembly, yet insisted in remaining in office (with Sinn Fein threatening to pull out again if it believed that others were ganging up to exclude it from office)? What about Jim Allister and Clare Bailey? The only party leader to have supported O’Neill is Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit; but what would he do if a majority in the Assembly registered no confidence in her?

The reason nothing will happen is that all the parties accept that they cannot allow the Executive to collapse in the middle of this particular crisis. None of them wants an election, either. And I can’t imagine that any of them has the appetite for another series of negotiations in which all sorts of new quid pro quo demands will be dumped on the table. Crucially, I also think all the parties acknowledge (although they won’t say so out loud) that if the Executive does collapse again then it probably won’t be rebooted. There’s only so many running repairs you can make to a vehicle before it just lies down and dies.

I tweeted a few days ago: ‘In a situation in which the key players won’t risk the collapse of the institutions the default position is always a great bucket of poop sprayed with the sweet, sickly aroma of the richest of rich fudge.’ So, a great bucket of scented poop is exactly what I’m expecting to see being pushed onto the floor of the Assembly in the next 72 hours. I’m not even sure the parties will bother to hold their noses to avoid the smell, because they all know that everyone outside the chamber will see the stunt for the monumental absurdity it actually is.

A motion of no confidence brings enormous risks, not least the fact that even if O’Neill had just 27/28 MLAs supporting her, a series of structural ruses, or sheer thranness from Sinn Fein, would prevent the majority removing her from office. But nor can the other parties, having made such an issue of her standing aside, be seen to allow her to ‘get away with it’. All of which means a form of words and ‘acceptable’ apologies (including from other SF Executive ministers who attended the funeral) will be the likely route from the mess.

My personal view was also summed up in another tweet of mine last Tuesday: ‘I really do hope I’ll be spared the sight and sound of Michelle O’Neill – in her role as DFM and rule-maker – lecturing the rest of us on how we should behave when we’re outside and close to other people.’ Along with my partner and children I have obeyed the advice and guidance from the Executive: advice which could only be put in the public domain with Sinn Fein’s imprimatur. The advice and accompanying restrictions weren’t always easy for us, particularly those relating to wider family matters like weddings, social gatherings, illness and funerals. But we followed them: as did almost everyone else in Northern Ireland.

Michelle O’Neill got it wrong. And in getting it wrong she sent (as did Dominic Cummings) a message to hundreds of thousands of others that getting it wrong is ok. She may have a point that she was not personally responsible for the crowds which turned up for Bobby Storey’s funeral; but she would have known, as would her advisors, that a few well chosen, well placed sentences from her at Monday’s press conference would probably have ensured there wouldn’t have been a crowd. Viruses like crowds: it makes their task a lot easier, which is why we use the term ‘viral’ so much on social media.

Leadership means decisions and advice that won’t always be popular with your own side. So be it: if you can’t be that kind of leader then don’t take the job in the first place. And if it’s clear you got it wrong, never be afraid to apologise and follow through with the necessary consequences. For me this is not just about politics, it is about avoiding situations (and this also applies to elements of loyalism/unionism in the run-up to the Twelfth) in which crowds gather and the virus spreads.

The Executive won’t fall over this latest spat. The usual fudge will be dolloped from the usual bucket. But O’Neill has damaged herself and, in a unique crisis, damaged the authority of an Executive which desperately requires consensus and joint approach. Deep down I’m pretty sure she knows the damage she has done: saying so, clearly and unambiguously, would do her no harm at all.

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