Alex Kane: Sinn Fein’s Republic poll win wasn’t just due to socio/economic policies but because it tapped into desire for change

Those are truly extraordinary figures. So extraordinary in fact that it is well within the bounds of possibility and in-built polling error that another election would see Sinn Fein not only confirm its present position as the largest party in the Republic, but maybe also larger than Fianna Fail and Fine Gael combined. And that’s the kind of outcome which should make Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar very keen to avoid another election.

Sinn Fein’s latest rise in the polls (a rise which will now be taken much more seriously than the predicted rises before the last election) may also make Martin and Varadkar wary of cutting what I’ve previously described as an ‘ourselves together’ deal that excludes Sinn Fein.

Any hint of even modest growth for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, or something that could be interpreted as a public backlash against the prospect of Sinn Fein in government, might have emboldened the other two leaders to concoct something similar to their confidence and supply arrangement in 2016. But the poll suggests no evidence of that, so anything that looks like a self-serving plan to marginalise the most popular party and most popular leader is likely to backfire.

It’s also worth noting that the constant reminders of the Sinn Fein/IRA links (mostly from the media and the leaderships of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael; and some from ‘Up The Ra’ stupidities at election counts) seem to have done nothing to instil caution in the electorate.

It’s not, I think, the case that people in the Republic don’t care about the IRA and the personal pasts of some key players in Sinn Fein, it’s just that they don’t continue the link through to Mary Lou McDonald. Gerry Adams clearly presented a problem for some voters. She doesn’t.

Indeed, it seems clear that people who once voted for other parties are now prepared to vote for Sinn Fein; which mirrors what we saw happen in Northern Ireland, a process which John Hume (I think) described as SDLP lending votes to Sinn Fein for the sake of peace. Yet within five years those lent votes had become part of Sinn Fein’s core vote.

In my News Letter column on February 3, a few days before the election and discussing the possible outcomes, I noted: ‘There is still a very significant distrust of Sinn Fein within Ireland’s political establishment. Am I suggesting that a Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein deal is inevitable? ‘No. But I am suggesting that the possibility of such a deal might be greater than most observers think.’

My gut instinct then – and it hasn’t changed – is that Micheál Martin was desperate to be Taoiseach and would, consequently, consider all options (it was the same instinct, by the way, which led to my conclusion in 2005 that the DUP would eventually cut a deal with SF; a conclusion which resulted in Ian Paisley replying to the News Letter that I shouldn’t ‘judge the DUP by the standards of the UUP’).

It is still Martin who has the biggest call to make at this point. This is probably his last opportunity to become Taoiseach and if he fails he will be the only leader of Fianna Fail (so far) never to have been elected Taoiseach.

A deal with Fine Gael, which excludes Sinn Fein, could do more long term electoral damage to his party than to either Sinn Fein or Fine Gael, meaning it becomes a very risky strategy.

A second election doesn’t seem to hold much prospect of racing ahead of Sinn Fein, which means he would be booted from the leadership.

Anyway, a deal with a party which failed to renew or increase its mandate after four years in government smacks of desperation; the sort of desperation which makes stability difficult.

Bringing Sinn Fein into government with him (although maybe the new poll, if it was backed up by others, will push Sinn Fein towards a second election) raises all sorts of problems for him and his party, but at least it allows him to become Taoiseach and, although nothing is certain in politics nowadays, make it slightly easier to build a reasonably stable government.

There might even be subsequent brownie points from voters for proving that he wasn’t afraid to listen to an important new element in the electorate (particularly younger people) and make difficult decisions.

A Fianna Fail/Fine Gael coalition does look like the easier option for him but, as I say, the long term consequences might do him no favours. One thing he will have noted from what’s been happening in Northern Ireland since the mid-1990s is that efforts to exclude or marginalise Sinn Fein singularly failed to halt the growth of the party.

The same sort of thing seems to be happening in the Republic. Which leads to all sorts of questions for the political establishment, not least of which is, why is a party with Sinn Fein’s background, links with the IRA and hard-left policies, doing so well and outpolling Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Let me offer a note of caution to my political audience in the Republic (and I know quite a few politicians there read this column); don’t make the mistake of assuming that Sinn Fein’s success is entirely down to presenting themselves as a socio/economic alternative to the Fianna Fail/Fine Gael ‘establishment’.

It runs much, much deeper than that. The party has tapped into something (beyond Brexit dynamics, too), a desire for political/electoral change, if you like, that the other parties haven’t fully appreciated.

There are clearly a number of routes to keep Sinn Fein out of government, but it’s beginning to look like those options would actually be of enormous political and electoral benefit to the party. The old establishment needs to tread with enormous caution if it hopes to survive this present crisis.