Belfast Agreement @25: Brexit has been a disaster for unionism yet its advocates won't admit this, writes Reg Empey

​Most of us are probably suffering from Belfast Agreement fatigue after a series of programmes articles and interviews to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday deal. The conference organised by Queen’s University had an amazing list of high-level participants, unprecedented in the history of any small region of less than two million people, and in my opinion will have a more lasting and significant effect than the whistlestop visit of President Biden.

The gala dinner hosted by Rishi Sunak at Hillsborough, was an astonishing gathering, the like of which we will never see again. Apart from the presence of the Clintons and Senator Mitchell, there were four former prime ministers, many former Northern Ireland secretaries, senior European Officials, the Taoiseach and Irish government ministers, diplomats past and present and current and former senior civil servants and leading academics from around the world.

Also, there were leading DUP members, all of whom vigorously opposed the Good Friday Agreement, sitting down with leading Sinn Fein members including Gerry Adams and Mary Lou McDonald. This latter point reminded me of the pictures of some DUP figures posing with sledgehammers in their hands under the election slogan of ‘Smash Sinn Fein’. That worked well, didn’t it!

It does prove that the gravitational pull of the agreement is strong and largely irresistible. The fact that the B/GFA process was endorsed by the people in the 1998 referendum, before it was implemented and before it was adulterated at St Andrew’s, gives it a legitimacy other agreements both before and after lack. But apart from the presence of the great and the good, the most poignant moment for me was the appearance of the Omagh Youth Community Choir who entertained us at the dinner. Looking at all those young people from a town ravaged by terrorism in 1998, they were the proof that perhaps what we did then was bearing fruit. Not one of them will have any recollection of the ‘Troubles’ albeit that their town was recently selected for a murder attempt on a PSNI officer. But they represented another generation growing up with little knowledge or personal experience of the awful conditions that their mothers and fathers had endured. They can look forward to ‘normal’ rewarding lives, and if we can get our political act together here, maybe we can create the opportunities for them to find fulfilling careers in Northern Ireland and not have to join an endless conveyor belt of a corrosive brain drain of our brightest and best that has scarred this country for generations.

But what is becoming increasing clear to me, as a life-long unionist, is that unionism has clearly lost its way. Instead of seeing unionist ministers playing the leading role at that gala dinner, those who might aspire to hold such positions were there as ordinary guests if they were there at all. Others were filling the vacuum.

After being under siege throughout the ‘Troubles’ and in many cases driven from their land and homes by terrorists, some unionists have difficulty seeing the long-term benefits of engagement with the political process. I am convinced that this must change if we are to secure our place in the United Kingdom in the long term.

Northern Ireland is changing, it is becoming more culturally and politically diverse. In the 20 years since the DUP became the leading unionist party, one fifth of unionist support at the polls has disappeared. This is a frightening statistic.

Unionism is confronted with the backwash of a poorly thought through and appallingly badly negotiated Brexit. If there had not been Brexit, there would have been no Protocol and no Windsor Framework, no Irish Sea Border, and no customs posts at Larne Belfast and Warrenpoint. Brexit has been a disaster for unionism. The border has effectively been moved from Newry to Larne, and republicans have not had to lift a finger to achieve this. It annoys me that those who were the leading advocates for Brexit have not even acknowledged that they may have got it wrong.

Ulster Unionists went to see Prime Minister Cameron in 2016 before the referendum to find out what his plans were for Northern Ireland. At that meeting we established that London had no workable plans and didn’t even understand what the consequences for us of a land border with the EU on this island would be. When Cameron departed, the UK began what must rank as its worst ever example of statecraft with a dreadful negotiation with the EU. London was bounced into decisions that have had significant consequences for us without any meaningful input from local politicians.

But the arrival of Boris Johnson and his ‘Lets get Brexit done’ mantra led to worse. Boris proposed the border in the Irish Sea in October 2019 in his document ‘Explanatory Note – UK proposals for an amended Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland 02/10/2019.’ At that time his government was sustained by the DUP who held the balance of power in Parliament. To my astonishment Arlene Foster issued a statement on behalf of her party describing Boris’s proposals as ‘A Serious and Sensible Way Forward.’ To this day I cannot comprehend why they agreed to such a thing.

As one has come to expect, 15 days later Boris turned his document, after amendment, into the protocol. The Windsor Framework is a watered-down version of this, and while some easements have been provided, many of the principles of the protocol remain.

So, what is unionism to do? The DUP boycott of the last 15 months has failed, and their seven tests have virtually disappeared. I fear that further boycott and turmoil will weaken unionism further. This government has moved on to its domestic agenda and is in election and survival mode. Talk of some legislative change which might give some comfort to unionists should not be relied upon. While I would welcome anything that helped cement the Union, this idea is little more than a comfort blanket. It will always be secondary to the international agreement entered into by the EU and UK as a result of the Windsor Framework.

The way ahead is for unionists to fully engage, take up their roles at Stormont and prepare for the upcoming negotiations on the Trade and Co-operation Agreement between the UK and the EU so we can try and repair some of the damage caused by the badly handled Brexit. Further delay only plays into Sinn Fein hands. Unionists proving that Northern Ireland isn’t working is totally self-defeating.

For the sake of the young people from Omagh and their counterparts throughout Northern Ireland, we need to make this place work and work well. That is the best way to safeguard the Union for future generations. Further boycott will run the risk of ever-growing Dublin involvement in out affairs. 1980s style direct rule isn’t coming back here.

If unionists at Westminster are promising you that, remember that they have totally misjudged what London was going to do in Northern Ireland after the 2016 Referendum on leaving the EU. The European Research Group of Tory MPs in whom unionist put so much faith, all voted for the Protocol as for them Brexit is more important than the Union. Don’t let us be fooled again.

• Lord Empey is a former Ulster Unionist leader