Ben Habib: Path to victory over Protocol lies in threatening the Tories

​But bringing down the assembly is nowhere near enough to persuade the government to ditch the Protocol.

In multiple court hearings since Stormont was ended, HMG has argued fundamental aspects of the Acts of Union no longer apply to Northern Ireland and that it should be treated as a foreign country.

It continues to ride roughshod over opposition to implement the Protocol.

Most recently it agreed to egregious demands from the EU for access to sensitive UK trade data across the Irish Sea.

Such knowledge will be used by the Republic and EU to speed up their economic capture of Northern Ireland.

No matter that the Protocol is a monumental act of constitutional self-harm, fixing it did not even feature in Sunak’s five-point plan for 2023.

Stormont being brought down may be less than ideal for HMG but it makes little real difference. The Protocol is being cemented in, regardless.

The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill was nothing more than a distraction. That is now inexorably heading towards the same wastepaper basket that claimed the Internal Market Bill promoted by Johnson in 2020 and then his declaration not to hesitate in invoking Article 16 of the Protocol to suspend it.

Last week Sir Jeffrey met the European Research Group faction within the Conservative Parliamentary Party. The ERG is meant to be the beating heart of unionism and sovereign independence in the party. Its members agreed to stand shoulder to shoulder with the DUP in opposition to the Protocol. This adds up to two halves of nothing.

The ERG is just one splinter group in a deeply divided party. The best it could do is oppose new legislation. But no new legislation is required to implement the Protocol. HMG has all the Parliamentary authority it needs to build border posts, hand over sensitive trade data and even do a new deal with the EU in its attempt to hide the Irish Sea border.

When considering the ERG it is worth bearing in mind this is the same group of people that counts amongst its members Boris Johnson, Chris Heaton-Harris and Steve Baker. The Protocol is the creation of ERG members. It is being cemented in by ERG members.

I believe David Jones, the current chairman of the ERG, to be a good man. That does not change the fact the group is inherently untrustworthy and, as far as fighting the Protocol is concerned, ineffectual.

HMG is stepping round the collapsed Stormont and pressing on with the Protocol. No amount of sidling up to factions within the Conservative Party will change that.

Bringing down Stormont required huge courage and resolve from Sir Jeffrey. But to defeat the Protocol, Sir Jeffrey will have to do a lot more than that and the making of fickle allies in the Tory party.

The path to victory lies not in trusting the Tories but in threatening them.

I have hinted before in this paper that the fight needs to be taken to the mainland. I will now be explicit. The only way unionism stands a chance of defeating the Protocol is if the DUP emerges from Northern Ireland and poses a direct electoral threat to the Conservative Party. The DUP must stand for seats in England, Scotland and Wales.

Yes, this is a massive ask. It would require the DUP to cease being a provincial party in its comfort zone of Northern Ireland. It would need partially to reinvest itself. It would require massive extra funding. The work and pressure involved would test Sir Jeffrey to the limit.

But the truth is, if it does not get on its front foot, the DUP and unionism face the near certainty of becoming less and less relevant in a province further and further away from Great Britain.

On the other hand, taking this one large step would immediately yield massive benefits. For a start it would force the anti-unionism forces, of which there is no shortage, in both the Conservative and Labour parties to sit up and take note of Northern Ireland. The Tories, in particular, would be deeply concerned. They already face a very difficult election in 2024. The last thing they need is yet another threat espousing genuinely conservative policies.

I know with utter certainty there would be great support for the DUP on the mainland.

And to the ERG I say this: if it genuinely is committed to standing shoulder to shoulder with the DUP, it should abandon the ideologically devoid, anti-unionist Tory party and cross the floor to the DUP. Any declarations of support short of doing so are, frankly, meaningless.

The union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland faces an existential threat. The threat will not be seen off with a siege mentality stuck in Northern Ireland. In this case the only form of defence is offence.

* Ben Habib is a former Brexit Party MEP