Ben Lowry: Just as Peter Robinson says, there is an urgent need to build arguments for the UK in case of a border poll

The ex DUP leader told MacGill summer school in Donegal that he did not expect Northern Ireland to quit the UK. But the one-time first minister memorably added: “I don’t expect my own house to burn down but I still insure it because it could happen.”

The speech was criticised by Mr Robinson’s past colleague Sammy Wilson MP, who said people need “encouragement that there are ways of defending the Union, other than preparing for defeat in a referendum which [might not] happen”.

But that was not the first time the DUP talked candidly about a border poll. In January 2013 Arlene Foster said that the DUP had considered backing Sinn Fein’s bid for a referendum on a united Ireland

Accusing republicans of fuelling instability in NI, Mrs Foster said that a large majority vote for the Union in a border poll might cause the instability to go away “and that’s something we’re looking at”.

Shortly after Mrs Foster’s remarks, a BBC Spotlight poll found that 80% of those who expressed a preference in NI would vote to stay in the UK. Polls then consistently showed big majorities for staying in the UK — typically above 70%.

The debate prompted me to write my first opinion piece for this paper. I said unionists should agree to a referendum because it could settle the matter for a generation. But even back then I accepted that such a vote had risk for unionists, the key one being that many nationalists might in a survey pragmatically say they were happy in the UK but then, in the ballot box confronted with a rare chance to secure a united Ireland, vote by their heart.

Things were different in early 2013. Months earlier the then prime minister David Cameron had agreed a Scottish independence referendum for 2014. Early polling showed Scots backing the UK by two to one.

In 2013 also Mr Cameron pledged the Tories to an In-Out referendum on the EU, but few people thought he would be in a position to deliver it— his Liberal Democrat coalition partners were strongly pro Europe. As late as 2015 the Conservatives were not expected to be re-elected with an overall majority.

But then they did get one.

Meanwhile, the Scottish race tightened until the pro UK campaign got a clear, but by no means overwhelming, 55-45 victory to stay.

This week Mr Robinson returned to the subject in his first News Letter column (which will appear bi weekly on Fridays — the web version of this article will link to his essay).

He wrote: “I know there are border poll deniers who think such a referendum will never be called or believe that to talk about and prepare for a plebiscite creates momentum that will speed its arrival. I do not subscribe to such complacent and dangerous thinking.”

And it seems increasingly obvious that he is right about that.

Micheal Martin said on Thursday that he does not want a border poll within five years but that time will pass quickly.

Keir Starmer could become prime minister in 2024. The Tories will have been in power since 2010, and political parties rarely emerge top in five consecutive elections.

A Starmer administration might grant both a Scottish independence vote and an NI border poll.

Unionists should of course challenge claims of widespread backing for a united Ireland. The pollsters Luicd Talk often find such support, but face-to-face research, which is thorough, has not done.

As Mr Robinson says, unionists must create an organisation to prepare for a plebiscite in any event, and build a case for the Union.

This has been made all the more obvious by recent events.

Unionism has seemed lost at sea amid republican advances.

First, on the legacy of the past, where the idea that IRA violence was legitimate is fast growing.

Second, on cultural matters, as the vote yesterday on Irish signs in Belfast city council shows (it will make signage far more prevalent).

Third, in the muddled response to Sinn Fein’s collapse of Stormont.

Fourth, in the mercenary and ungrateful attitude to massively generous London funding for NI.

And above all on Brexit and the Irish Sea border.

There was near apathy during the ‘phoney war’ period between the 2016 Brexit vote and Theresa May’s capitulation in late 2018.

During this period, Irish nationalists, the Irish government and pro EU activists in Northern Ireland were marshalling their case and running rings round unionists.

In addition to the pro Union research group suggested by Mr Robinson there needs to be a pro UK business group. I suggested this after all the key business organisations including the UFU supported Mrs May’s disastrous backstop.

To this day some unionists say her deal was better than Boris Johnson’s, but it wasn’t. It cemented the idea that the over-riding UK policy goal was nothing — not even CCTV — at the land frontier. Her deal also set the scene for a future customs border in the Irish Sea.

If there is such an incompetent unionist response to a sudden border poll, the Union is in deep peril.

• Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter deputy editor

• Peter Robinson: NI needs a pro Union group that will help in any border poll

• Ben Lowry: Kirstie Allsopp is right — we should all imagine we face a 50% Covid pay cut

——— ———

A message from the Editor:

Thank you for reading this story on our website. While I have your attention, I also have an important request to make of you.

With the coronavirus lockdown having a major impact on many of our advertisers — and consequently the revenue we receive — we are more reliant than ever on you taking out a digital subscription.

Subscribe to newsletter.co.uk and enjoy unlimited access to the best Northern Ireland and UK news and information online and on our app. With a digital subscription, you can read more than 5 articles, see fewer ads, enjoy faster load times, and get access to exclusive newsletters and content. Visit https://www.newsletter.co.uk/subscriptions now to sign up.

Our journalism costs money and we rely on advertising, print and digital revenues to help to support them. By supporting us, we are able to support you in providing trusted, fact-checked content for this website.

Alistair Bushe

Editor