Ben Lowry: ​Keir Starmer is a poor prime minister but the other Labour hopefuls seem worse - particularly from a unionist perspective

​It means he is probably now favourite to unseat Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister. Labour’s National Executive Committee said last evening that it had “given permission to Andy Burnham to stand in the candidate selection process in the forthcoming by-election for the Makerfield constituency”.

This statement was a sign of Sir Keir’s gravely weakened position. The NEC had prevented Mr Burnham’s previous bid to contest a by-election, in Gorton and Denton. Yet this coming Makerfield contest, unlike the Gorton contest (which was caused by an MP stepping down on health grounds), has specifically been caused to challenge Sir Keir, with a Labour MP standing down in the hope that Mr Burnham runs.

I think this is an extraordinarily perilous step by Mr Burnham, because there is a high chance that he will lose. But in taking that risk, it does show a nerve and boldness that is almost admirable, and provides an immediate contrast with Sir Keir. One reason the latter is so unpopular is that most people, while they sense that he is a good man, have intuitively concluded that he is weak. He seems reticent, even insipid, no matter how much he puts a false emphasis on certain words and phrases when he delivers a speech, eg last Monday, in a forlorn attempt to project himself as decisive and forceful.

The Gorton and Denton by-election saw a huge swing from Labour to the Greens, but there was also a very large swing from Labour to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and indeed a Tory to Reform swing too. The Labour lead over Reform in Makerfield in the the 2024 election was much lower than in Denton. In theory thus, Labour will be thrashed in the coming Makerfield contest.

Burnham supporters are assuming that his huge popularity in the wider area, as Manchester mayor, will mean he wins easily. If I was putting money on the outcome, I would nervously agree. After all, many of the former Labour supporters voting for Burnham will see that as a punishment for Starmer and so will not feel the need to back the Greens or Reform to send a message to Westminster. But other voters will want to punish the Labour Party as a whole, and might vote Green or Reform to do so. Also, if the by-election vote is split between the four main party candidates, Burnham’s gamble could fail.

But even if Burnham does prevail, and he is soon MP for Makerfield and shortly thereafter the new prime minister, having defeated Sir Keir, I fear that he will be no better as PM, from either a national or a Northern Ireland perspective. Nationally, his support for sky high public spending will, I fear, lead to national ruin.

Earlier this year, our excellent Monday columnist Owen Polley wrote that “many of the realistic alternatives as Labour leader are likely to be considerably worse than Starmer". Owen also pointed out that unionists who thought Labour would be better for unionism than the Tories had been proven wrong by events.

This is right on both scores. Angela Rayner as prime minister would obviously be worse for both the entire UK and for NI than Sir Keir. She is patently unsuited to any serious political office, let alone the immense intellectual and psychological demands of being premier. She would be a laughing stock, who would at best farm out NI policy to the Northern Ireland Office (NIO), which I dubbed the Neutral Ireland Office in a 2022 column such is its obsession with charting a middle path between unionism and the Irish government.

Wes Streeting seems to be politically tough at times, standing up to vested interests in health for example. But his reputation for opportunism has been burnished by recent events. Opportunism is the last thing unionism needs, when Irish nationalism is emboldened.

Ed Miliband is doctrinaire, as his unyielding pursuit of Net Zero as energy secretary has shown, and strongly pro EU, so he will back the reset with Ireland that is causing such difficulty on legacy (ie the pursuit of veterans while the IRA enjoys effective amnesty).

And Mr Burnham himself is unreliable. Once a supporter of that sensible UK policy goal, letting Labour organise in Northern Ireland, on his visit here this year he seemed to revert to seeing the nationalist SDLP as Labour’s ‘sister party’.

The only candidate who might be better than Sir Keir from a unionist perspective is a former colonel in the Royal Marines, Al Carns MP, who is reportedly unhappy at Labour’s weakness on the legacy of terrorism. But he is a wildcard leadership contender.

Ben Lowry (@Benlowry2) is News Letter editor