Ben Lowry: The prospects of a DUP return to Stormont recede for now but it is still possible this year

The host, William Crawley, said I was being optimistic, but I would not categorise my thoughts as such. The return of Stormont will not be a panacea for Northern Ireland. It is arguable that the very opposite is true: that health and education have suffered from political cowardice and a refusal to implement efficiency reforms.

The return of power-sharing will also see a resumption of a highly dysfunctional political system in which two irreconcilable parties have to share power at all times. That is a worse outcome for unionists than nationalists because a party that wants Northern Ireland to cease to exist (ie fail) has to be at the top of government. And yet no-one in London wants to address this imbalance that works against those who want NI to stay within the UK. On the contrary, only unionists get threatened with devolution rule change. Never would a Conservative and Unionist government minister dare to so much as criticise Sinn Fein, let alone change the system so that it can proceed without them.

Why then would any unionist want to return? Well first because many politicians’ livelihoods depend on it. This is not to criticise them: anyone who runs for elected office, and forgoes other paid work to do so, is going to want to be able to get on with the job and to earn a living. This creates a further imbalance in the system. Sinn Fein politicians do not feel the same pressure because they are required to sacrifice a portion of their salary to the party. They also come from a political movement culture in which the goal – an all Ireland – must and shall trump personal advancement.

Thus my prediction to Talkback was hardly an optimistic one – or not from a unionist perspective anyway. But I still see a powerful impulse to return. This is partly for the personal motives of politicians just mentioned, but also because many unionists fear that staying out of Stormont will be even worse than going back.

They think it will bolster Sinn Fein in next year’s general election. They think the current government, in particular the Northern Ireland Office (NIO) ministers Chris Heaton-Harris and Steve Baker, have demonstrated at best a mis-understanding of unionism and at worst a distinct lack of sympathy, belying their early depiction by nationalists as partisan Brexiteer unionists.

If this is how unionist Tories act, goes the returner logic, then rule change to allow power sharing at Stormont to proceed without unionists is likely. Or a form of joint stewardship in which Irish ministers have an increased say over the province.

This week it was reported that London is thinking of taking full control of implementing the Windsor Framework due to the absence of Stormont. The NIO and Downing Street are said to be looking at options for how Britain can implement its deal with Brussels. As I understand it the government is flirting with the idea of returning Stormont in such a way that a devolved minister could decline to implement the framework, in which case Westminster would do so. This would circumvent unionist fears that a return to power-sharing will mean implementing the Irish Sea border.

While such an arrangement will be welcomed by some moderate unionists, I believe it has gone down badly with the DUP. As has recent talk from Mr Heaton-Harris that “substantial” progress has been made in talks with the biggest unionist party, when it has not been made – given that the UK is not in further talks with the EU about NI.

Thus nothing will happen before the Windsor Framework begins to come into force at the start of next month. This week the House of Lords sub-committee (of the European Affairs Committee) on the the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland heard evidence from business representatives on the framework. The concern expressed about the imminent trade barrier was such that there is no chance of a Stormont return until the border has come into force and its impact is assessed.

Over the summer I have talked to some of the most senior unionist politicians in Northern Ireland. There is much talk of a split in the DUP and I have even used the word myself. At the very least it is a clear difference of emphasis between those who think a return is desirable and those who think it would throw away the only leverage, and be madness.

A key moment will come in early November, when the first month of the framework has been assessed, including how many businesses have used the so-called green or red lanes. If too many go for the latter the framework will be seen to be an immediate failure.

How, amidst so much unionist gloom, is a return this year feasible? Well I remember how quickly the 2020 New Decade New Approach deal to return Stormont was agreed. I thought it a very poor deal, full of snares for unionists. Yet DUP opposition to an Irish language act swiftly collapsed and there was no opposition to the tearing up of the three strands by Julian Smith and Simon Coveney (a precedent from which unionists might never recover). There was no DUP split and barely a word of complaint from unionist voters. As a unionist observer I thought it a disturbing collapse.

So it is clearly wrong to say the DUP can’t get away with a sudden u-turn.

I also wonder if the government will give the DUP some apparent legal protection on the Union that will cause Sir Jeffrey Donaldson to seek a return to Stormont in a display of joint support with the Ulster Unionist leader Doug Beattie. But, I should emphasise, some experienced DUP hands tell me the Irish Sea border is such now that this cannot happen without an unacceptable loss of face among unionist voters.

Will a return happen anyway, followed by a unionist realignment?