Ben Lowry: There are immediate lessons for Northern Ireland from Sweden’s Covid response, even if it is too early for a full comparison

On these pages two weeks ago, Annika Nestius-Brown (see link below), a Swede who lived in Northern Ireland for 20 years, pointed out that lockdown means different things in different countries, and ranges from Spain (where it was not even possible to get out for exercise) to the UK (which is much less rigid).

Even in Sweden there are restrictions such as bans on gatherings of 50 or more people. Schools and cafes are open but people are advised to social distance.

Critics of Sweden note it has a higher per person death toll than neighbouring Finland and Norway. But a professor of statistics at Cambridge University has said it is too early to say why.

Writing in the Guardian David Spiegelhalter pointed out that it is a disease that hits crowded areas such as New York state more than less crowded ones such as Iceland.

For weeks some of us have wondered whether the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland were all faring better than England because all three have a much lower population density.

If England was a nation state it would have one of the highest population densities in the world. It is as packed as Belgium and Netherlands, which like England have been badly hit by Covid-19.

I have noticed that the sparsely populated US state of Maine, where I was born, which has no city bigger than Londonderry, has a per person Covid-19 fatality rate a fraction (one eighth) of Massachusetts down the road, which is much more densely populated and has one of America’s big cities, Boston.

Prof Spiegelhalter also said that Italy, with a median age of 47, should have a higher death toll than Ireland, with a median age of 37.

He referred to the “obsessive comparison” between Sweden and Norway.

It is not as obsessive as the one many Irish nationalists are making between the Irish Republic and UK.

So while it is too early to say that Sweden’s approach has worked, it does still have a death toll below the UK and on a par with Ireland.

Swedish leaders openly talk about their errors such as not moving fast enough to protect care homes (incidentally a Northern Ireland official told me there is a reluctance here to admit how extraordinarily hard it is to keep Covid-19 out of a setting in which frail people need outside helpers to clean, dress and eat).

By avoiding total lockdown Sweden is less likely to suffer financial ruin (although even its economy has fallen) or problems such as mental health issues among people who have little or no social contact.

While we still cannot know how Sweden has fared compared to other nations, some immediate lessons can be drawn from their approach.

One is how their public listened to experts without panicking and for example insisting that schools close.

There seems increasingly little chance that Northern Ireland schools will be allowed back before September, despite emerging evidence cited above by the internationally respected doctor Professor Karol Sikora (a tweet that was republished in the print edition) that children under 10 do not spread Covid-19 to adults.

This in addition to increasing evidence that the risk of people under age 40 dying from it is negligible, and a little above zero for children.

A pay rise for teachers in Northern Ireland was waved through 10 days ago without a whisper of whether schools will be back before summer or, if not, then in August to make up for lost time.

It was breezily justified on grounds that it appeared in the deal to return Stormont, as if the world had not been turned upside down since then, with immense financial hardship for the rest of society.

Channel 4 News this week spoke to a Swedish family who had all had Covid-19 and said they now felt immune.

They discussed how the move to herd immunity (letting infections reach 60+% of the population so the virus burns out) will help Sweden if there is a second wave.

I have seen many BBC (including BBC NI) reports on recovered patients but have never seen one in which such a discussion with a survivor then leads to so much as a mention of immunity.

Rather, in the reports I have seen with survivors it is used to illustrate the serious nature of Covid-19 (such reports often morph into a commentary sermon on why lockdown is the right thing).

If herd immunity is even mentioned in the UK it is only in terms of a minister nervously saying it was never a government aim. But there should be at least a debate about whether places such as New York (where perhaps 20+% of people have had Covid) should allow controlled spread among young people, now that hospital critical care capacity has been radically increased.

If Sweden or NY reach that point, then lockdown (which causes premature non virus deaths) could end, maybe far before other places. This is not to say that that is the correct approach, but that it should at least be considered.

In the UK any mention of the immunity tactic is depicted, particularly on this island, as a callous Tory death plan. Yet Swedes sensibly debate such things.

A further immediate lesson from Sweden is one that can be applied to our own experience: most people comply with social distancing.

My own faith in humanity is reaffirmed by the way overwhelmingly people want to do the right thing, to help and to support key workers.

Across the world people are behaving similarly well. In Sweden people are said to be acting cautiously without being forced to.

It suggests that if in Northern Ireland we begin to allow access to garden centres, churches and outside spaces people will behave as advised (I would also reopen car parks so that people can drive for exercise).

If we later need to tighten up again they will do that too.

Finally, with clear signs that many elderly folk are fed up with lockdown but with stark evidence that the old are most at risk, we should encourage people to talk to vulnerable loved ones through windows or at a distance in gardens.

This should be accompanied by ad campaigns to warn people of the risk of infecting their elders.

We now know from Sweden, and indeed from Northern Ireland, that most people will follow such advice.

• Ben Lowry (@BenLowry2) is News Letter deputy editor

• Annika Nestius-Brown: Sweden has not see the predicted exponential rise in Covid-19 cases

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