Editorial: Brexit has caused little shift on Northern Ireland border views since EU vote to leave 10 years ago
News Letter editorial for Wednesday, May 6, 2026:
A survey has found a big majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote to join an all Ireland.
The finding is that if there was a referendum tomorrow on an island state in the European Union, 59% in the Republic of Ireland would vote in favour and 22% against, with an even higher majority in favour in Northern Ireland – 63% for and 29% against.
The findings are part of European Movement Ireland’s Island of Ireland EU Poll 2026, conducted by Amarach Research. The online survey, carried out in March, found that if the UK held a referendum tomorrow on rejoining the EU, respondents in Northern Ireland would vote 73% in favour, with 23% voting against.
There are immediate alarm bells with these results. The first is that when NI actually voted on quitting the EU ten years ago, the result was far more close than that – it was 55.8% for staying, 44.2% for leaving. This was a much closer result than had been expected at the start of the Brexit campaign, when it was thought NI would vote perhaps 70% pro EU, with almost all nationalists supporting it and unionists evenly split.
The second alarm bell is that the survey finding that NI would vote 63% to 29% in favour of an all Ireland within the EU. If those who did not express a preference are excluded, that is more than two to one for a independent Ireland. No other reputable polling on the constitutional question has found such a thing. Most indeed find clear majorities for staying in UK.
The people carrying out the poll support the EU, as many people do. But their findings need to be treated with extreme caution. This is why we give less prominence to such claims on opinion than many media outlets.
At times it seems as if there is willingness to find proof of a major shift in public opinion on the border, but a striking thing about Brexit is how little movement it has caused on the constitutional question over the decade since the momentous EU vote to leave.