Esmond Birnie: Donald Trump's MAGA policies may well be accelerating the rise of China - and decline of the US
Superpower summits are difficult affairs. This was true when they dealt with relatively technical economic matters such as exchange rates and trade deficits.
How much more consequential and fraught was the recent summit between the two presidents: Trump and Xi. This geopolitical struggle is one that so far China seems to be winning.
Ironically, and unfortunately, this follows in large part from the self-harm inflicted by Trump’s policies. MAGA may not make America great again but it may well accelerate the relative rise of China alongside the relative decline of the USA.
How has that apparently surprising consequence come about? In the first place there is the self-destructive impact of Trump’s economic policies.
A tariff wall around the USA will not recreate some sort of golden age of American prosperity. The available evidence suggests the tariffs harm more US businesses than those which are helped.
The president has compounded these difficulties by his very un-conservative (and un-Republican) policies of intervention in decision making in the private sector (particularly regarding US IT firms). This will prove very damaging to efficiency.
His administration has also made the US a rather colder house for scientific research and immigration by non-American scientists and technologists. Up to now US science in, say, AI and pharmaceuticals has been far in advance of that of China. We cannot be sure that will continue.
Then there are the vast and unintended consequences of Trump’s war against Iran. The aim of a nuclear-free Iran (ideally accompanied by a genuine regime change) is desirable but US foreign policy has failed in execution.
This war was started without thought been given as to what would be done if Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. It looks as though the US made no serious attempts to work with the Iranian opposition.
Even a superpower on the scale of the USA does not have limitless supplies of advanced and very expensive weaponry. Operation Epic Fury has burned through the US reserves of missiles etc. This implies fewer Patriot missiles can go to the Ukraine or to the Pacific Rim.
There is growing evidence that erstwhile allies of the US in East Asia such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines increasingly look on America as a very unreliable partner.
Trump is probably looking for an off-ramp from the war in the Gulf. He hopes China will use the leverage it undoubtedly has with Iran.
The problem is that if Xi gives Trump something he will demand a price. One wonders if that price would be an understanding that American will decouple from any serious support for Taiwan.
Note how equivocal Trump when was when asked about Taiwan as he took Air Force One back from Beijing. Especially given what we have seen happen to human rights in Hong Kong since 1997 we need to remember that a defence of Taiwan’s de facto independence is partly a moral case based on self-determination.
It is also about expediency, given how many of the advanced electronic chips used in the USA and across the world are made in the foundries of Tapei.
There is therefore a very great danger that this summit was a step from the post-Second World War Pax Americana to a Pax Sinica.
Should we care about that? There is always the temptation here in Northern Ireland to think we are somewhat insulated from world developments. After all, in 2024 Northern Ireland sold “only” about £200m worth of goods and services to China, a tiny proportion of our total output and only about half a dozen firms in the region are owned by Chinese businesses.
That said, we cannot escape geopolitics. We have this very curious situation that some of our NI Executive ministers seem to be determined to pursue what they regard as an “ethical” policy of economic disengagement from Israel whilst displaying no concern whatsoever about the UK or Europe’s strategic relationship with China.
The view that we should not worry about Chinese dominance would be strongly presented by the Chinese government. It might claim that China is now the force for world stability whilst Trump is the great disruptor.
Beijing might also claim that China has never been an overseas imperialist power in the way that Victorian Britain was. Smaller Asian countries like Vietnam or the Philippines would probably not be convinced that China is not projecting its military power across the sea.
We now see abundant evidence from within the UK and across the world that China has been using its undoubted economic strength to exert political influence. Sometimes this has gone beyond the bounds of what might be considered as legitimate soft power.
Trump will not be there forever. I hope (and pray) that the next American president, whether Republican or Democrat, will be more Atlanticist.
For sure, Pax Americana was characterised by plenty of flaws and hypocrisies but, ultimately, we do share important values with the US. The People’s Republic of China remains a one-party state where political and religious freedom is absent. In the long run that is a telling difference.
In the meantime Xi, may be following Napoleon’s dictum: “When your enemy is making a mistake don’t get in his way””.
Esmond Birnie is senior economist at Ulster University Business School